Climate warming is expected to reduce oxygen (O2) supply to the ocean and expand its oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). We reconstructed variations in the extent of North Pacific anoxia since 1850 using a geochemical proxy for denitrification (δ(15)N) from multiple sediment cores. Increasing δ(15)N since ~1990 records an expansion of anoxia, consistent with observed O2 trends. However, this was preceded by a longer declining δ(15)N trend that implies that the anoxic zone was shrinking for most of the 20th century. Both periods can be explained by changes in winds over the tropical Pacific that drive upwelling, biological productivity, and O2 demand within the OMZ. If equatorial Pacific winds resume their predicted weakening trend, the ocean's largest anoxic zone will contract despite a global O2 decline.

Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), located below highly productive marine regions, are sites of microbially mediated denitrification and biogeochemical cycling that have global significance. The intensity of OMZs fluctuates naturally; however, the degree of these fluctuations and a comprehensive understanding of the factors that drive these fluctuations on decadal to centennial time scales is lacking. Our high-resolution (near-annual) record of δ 15 N sed from laminated sediments at the Pescadero Slope in the Gulf of California (eastern tropical North Pacific) fluctuates between maximum values of 10.5‰ and minimum values of 8.0‰ over the past 1200 years. An analysis of the relationship between δ 15 NO 3 À and [O 2 ] in the water column suggests that the observed range of δ 15 N sed values is equivalent to an approximately 8 μM fluctuation in O 2 content and that these changes can occur in less than 25 years. Our findings show that the OMZ typically intensifies quickly and contracts gradually; the average rate of OMZ intensification (À0.24 μM O 2 /yr) is twice as fast as the rate of OMZ reoxygenation. Spectral analyses of the δ 15 N sed record and Br/Cl counts, with the latter are used as a proxy for organic carbon preservation, suggest that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Suess (deVries) solar cycle (solar irradiance) may influence the intensity of the OMZ and carbon production/export during the late Holocene. Coherence between δ 15 N sed and weight percent organic carbon also suggests that similar mechanisms influence both OMZ fluctuations and variation in organic carbon production/export.

The measurements of particulate δ 15 N in coastal marine laminated sediments provide a high-resolution proxy for fluctuations in the intensity of denitrification in the water column. In the eastern tropical North Pacific oxygen minimum zone, this denitrification signal is transported northward by the California Undercurrent, thus serving as a tracer of ocean circulation. This is verified through comparisons between salinity in the thermocline off Southern California (Santa Monica Basin) and the difference between δ 15 N sed within age equivalent sediments from a southern (Pescadero Slope) and northern (Santa Monica