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From smart work scheduling to optimal drug timing, there is enormous potential in translating circadian rhythms research results for precision medicine in the real world. However, the pursuit of such effort requires the ability to accurately estimate circadian phase outside of the laboratory. One approach is to predict circadian phase non-invasively using light and activity measurements and mathematical models of the human circadian clock. Most mathematical models take light as an input and predict the effect of light on the human circadian system. However, consumer-grade wearables that are already owned by millions of individuals record activity instead of light, which prompts an evaluation of the accuracy of predicting circadian phase using motion alone. Here, we evaluate the ability of four different models of the human circadian clock to estimate circadian phase from data acquired by wrist-worn wearable devices. Multiple datasets across populations with varying degrees of circadian disruption were used for generalizability. Though the models we test yield similar predictions, analysis of data from 27 shift workers with high levels of circadian disruption shows that activity, which is recorded in almost every wearable device, is better at predicting circadian phase than measured light levels from wrist-worn devices when processed by mathematical models. In those living under normal living conditions, circadian phase can typically be predicted to within 1 hour, even with data from a widely available commercial device (the Apple Watch). These results show that circadian phase can be predicted using existing data passively collected by millions of individuals with comparable accuracy to much more invasive and expensive methods.

Study Objectives A critical barrier to successful treatment of circadian misalignment in shift workers is determining circadian phase in a clinical or field setting. Light and movement data collected passively from wrist actigraphy can generate predictions of circadian phase via mathematical models; however, these models have largely been tested in non-shift working adults. This study tested the feasibility and accuracy of actigraphy in predicting dim light melatonin onset (DLMO) in fixed-night shift workers. Methods A sample of 45 night shift workers wore wrist actigraphs before completing DLMO in the laboratory (17.0 days ± 10.3 SD). DLMO was assessed via 24 hourly saliva samples in dim light (&10 lux). Data from actigraphy were provided as input to a mathematical model to generate predictions of circadian phase. Agreement was assessed and compared to average sleep timing on non-workdays as a proxy of DLMO. Model code and a prototype assessment tool are available open source. Results Model predictions of DLMO showed good concordance with in-lab DLMO, with a Lin’s concordance coefficient of 0.70, which was twice as high as agreement using average sleep timing as a proxy of DLMO. The absolute mean error of the predictions was 2.88 hours, with 76% and 91% of the predictions falling with 2 and 4 hours, respectively. Conclusion This study is the first to demonstrate the use of wrist actigraphy-based estimates of circadian phase as a clinically useful and valid alternative to in-lab measurement of DLMO in fixed night shift workers. Future research should explore how additional predictors may impact accuracy.

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