The paper examines the long-run relationship between financial inclusion and growth in Nigeria for the period 1981-2017.Using data from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin 2018 and the World Development Indicator 2018, the study applies econometrics to examine effects of credit to private sector, money supply, Interest rate and Government Expenditure on Per capita Gross Domestic Product. The results of the ARDL show that financial inclusion increases inclusive growth and makes easy access to loan for investment. The study also validates the finance led growth hypothesis and establishes that finance causes growth in Nigeria. Given the findings, policy makers need to focus more on long run financial policies that can enhance the effectiveness of the financial sector (both money and capital markets) in promoting growth. Additionally, the government should work to provide an enabling environment and create awareness to enhance public trust in the country’s financial system.
JEL Classification: O40
"The study investigates asymmetric impact of government expenditure on the economic growth of Nigeria using secondary data that spans through 1981 through 2018. In capturing the asymmetric impact, the study adopted the Non-Linear Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. Government expenditure components (recurrent and capital expenditure) were decomposed to positive and negative changes due to government review. From the result, it was confirmed that in the short-run, both positive and negative changes in recurrent and capital expenditure had a significant positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria at different time lag. In the long-run, positive changes in recurrent expenditure have a negative impact on economic growth, while negative changes have a positive significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Positive changes in capital expenditure have a positive impact on economic growth, while negative changes has a negative 5% significant impact on economic growth. It was concluded from the findings that government expenditure plans has a significant impact on the economic growth of Nigeria in the short-run and long-run. Therefore, it is recommended that government should rebalance its plans between capital and recurrent expenditure to enhance its growth target."
The study examines the asymmetric impact of oil price and electricity consumption on economic growth in Nigeria between 1981 and 2018 using the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. Results reveal that falling and increasing oil prices as well as gross capital formation affect economic growth in Nigeria negatively and significantly in the short-run, while electricity consumption affects economic growth positively and significantly in the short-run. In the long-run, the impact on economic growth of negative changes in oil price is negative and insignificant, while positive changes in oil price have a positive but insignificant impact on economic growth. The impact on the economic growth of electricity consumption remains positive but insignificant while that of gross capital formation is positive and significant. The results suggest that both in the short and the long run positive changes in oil price have greater impact on the economic growth than negative oil price changes. Capital formation is a significant determinant of Nigerian economic growth both in the short and the long run.
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