Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes1. For some patients dengue is a life-threatening illness2. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread3. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection4 and its public health burden are poorly known2,5. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanisation. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95 percent credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of clinical or sub-clinical severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization2. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods and in their economic evaluation. [285]

Avian influenza A (H5N1) viruses cause severe disease in humans 1,2 , but the basis for their virulence remains unclear. In vitro and animal studies indicate that high and disseminated viral replication is important for disease pathogenesis [3][4][5] . Laboratory experiments suggest that virusinduced cytokine dysregulation may contribute to disease severity [6][7][8][9] . To assess the relevance of these findings for human disease, we performed virological and immunological studies in 18 individuals with H5N1 and 8 individuals infected with human influenza virus subtypes. Influenza H5N1 infection in humans is characterized by high pharyngeal virus loads and frequent detection of viral RNA in rectum and blood. Viral RNA in blood was present only in fatal H5N1 cases and was associated with higher pharyngeal viral loads. We observed low peripheral blood Tlymphocyte counts and high chemokine and cytokine levels in H5N1-infected individuals, particularly in those who died, and these correlated with pharyngeal viral loads. Genetic characterization of H5N1 viruses revealed mutations in the viral polymerase complex associated COMPETING INTERESTS STATEMENTThe authors declare that they have no competing financial interests. Influenza H5N1 viruses cause severe and often fatal disease in humans that is characterized by fulminant pneumonia and multi-organ failure 1,2 . High replication efficiency, broad tissue tropism and systemic replication seem to determine the pathogenicity of H5N1 viruses in animals [3][4][5] . To examine the relevance of these viral properties in the context of human disease, we carried out virological analyses in respiratory and non-respiratory specimens of 18 previously healthy individuals with influenza H5N1 who were admitted to referral hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City during the years 2004 and 2005, of whom 13 died. (Table 1). For comparison, we studied eight patients who were hospitalized during the same period with human influenza H3N2 or H1N1. These patients presented earlier in the course of illness (Table 1), which may be explained by their origin from Ho Chi Minh City or neighboring provinces, in contrast with H5N1 patients who were mostly from more distant provinces. Europe PMC Funders GroupDespite their presentation late in the course of illness, we were able to isolate virus from pharyngeal specimens of 12 of 16 H5N1-infected individuals (Table 2). Genetic characterization and phylogenetic analysis revealed that all viral strains were of the genotype Z, H5N1 sublineage of viruses prevalent in Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand, as previously reported 10 . Pairwise comparison of all gene segments of viruses isolated from eight fatal and four surviving cases did not reveal unique amino acid changes in either group. No viruses contained Glu92 in the NS1 protein, which is associated with increased virulence of H5N1 viruses 6 , but all contained the recently reported PDZ-domain ligand ESEV 11 . An E627K substitution in the viral polymerase basic protein 2 (PB2), which is associated with adap...