Summary Background Strategies are needed to prevent and control type 2 diabetes and intermediate hyperglycaemia, which together affect roughly a third of adults in Bangladesh. We aimed to assess the effects of mHealth and community mobilisation on the prevalence of intermediate hyperglycaemia and diabetes among the general adult population in rural Bangladesh, and to assess the effect of these interventions on the incidence of type 2 diabetes among people with intermediate hyperglycaemia within the study population. Methods DMagic was a three-arm, cluster-randomised trial of participatory community mobilisation, mHealth mobile phone messaging, and usual care (control) in 96 villages (population roughly 125 000) in Bangladesh. Community mobilisation involved 18 monthly group meetings, led by lay facilitators, applying a participatory learning and action (PLA) cycle focused on diabetes prevention and control. mHealth involved twice-weekly voice messages over 14 months promoting behaviour change to reduce diabetes risk. The primary outcomes were the combined prevalence of type 2 diabetes and intermediate hyperglycaemia in the overall population at the end of the intervention implementation period, and 2-year cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes in a cohort with intermediate hyperglycaemia at baseline. Primary outcomes were assessed through fasting blood glucose concentrations and 2-h oral glucose tolerance tests among a cross-section of adults aged 30 years and older and a cohort of individuals identified with intermediate hyperglycaemia. Prevalence findings are based on a cross-sectional survey at the end of the study; incidence findings are based on 2-year follow-up survey of a cohort of individuals identified with intermediate hyperglycaemia through a cross-sectional survey at baseline. We also assessed the cost-effectiveness of the interventions. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN41083256, and is completed. Findings The study took place between June 27, 2015, and June 28, 2018, with the PLA intervention running in 32 villages from June, 2016, to December, 2017, and the mHealth intervention running in 32 villages from Oct 21, 2016, to Dec 24, 2017. End-of study prevalence was assessed in 11 454 individuals and incidence in 2100 individuals. There was a large reduction in the combined prevalence of type 2 diabetes and intermediate hyperglycaemia in the PLA group compared with the control group at the end of the study (adjusted [for stratification, clustering, and wealth] odds ratio [aOR] 0·36 [0·27–0·48]), with an absolute reduction of 20·7% (95% CI 14·6–26·7). Among 2470 adults with intermediate hyperglycaemia at baseline, 2100 (85%) were followed-up at 2 years. The 2-year cumulative incidence of diabetes in this cohort was significantly lower in the PLA group compared with control (aOR 0·39, 0·24–0·65), representing an absolute incidence reduction of 8·7% (3·5–14·0). There was no evidence of e...

BackgroundPneumonia is the leading infectious cause of under-5 mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Clinical prediction tools may aide case classification, triage, and allocation of hospital resources. We performed an external validation of two published prediction tools and compared this to a locally developed tool to identify children admitted with pneumonia at increased risk for in-hospital mortality in Malawi.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed the performance of the Respiratory Index of Severity in Children (RISC) and modified RISC (mRISC) scores in a child pneumonia dataset prospectively collected during routine care at seven hospitals in Malawi between 2011–2014. RISC has both an HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected tool. A local score (RISC-Malawi) was developed using multivariable logistic regression with missing data multiply imputed using chained equations. Score performances were assessed using c-statistics, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and likelihood statistics.Results16,475 in-patient pneumonia episodes were recorded (case-fatality rate (CFR): 3.2%), 9,533 with complete data (CFR: 2.0%). The c-statistic for the RISC (HIV-uninfected) score, used to assess its ability to differentiate between children who survived to discharge and those that died, was 0.72. The RISC-Malawi score, using mid-upper arm circumference as an indicator of malnutrition severity, had a c-statistic of 0.79. We were unable to perform a comprehensive external validation of RISC (HIV-infected) and mRISC as both scores include parameters that were not routinely documented variables in our dataset.ConclusionIn our population of Malawian children with WHO-defined pneumonia, the RISC (HIV-uninfected) score identified those at high risk for in-hospital mortality. However the refinement of parameters and resultant creation of RISC-Malawi improved performance. Next steps include prospectively studying both scores to determine if incorporation into routine care delivery can have a meaningful impact on in-hospital CFRs of children with WHO-defined pneumonia.

ObjectiveTo investigate implementation of outpatient pulse oximetry among children with pneumonia, in Malawi.MethodsIn 2011, 72 health-care providers at 18 rural health centres and 38 community health workers received training in the use of pulse oximetry to measure haemoglobin oxygen saturations. Data collected, between 1 January 2012 and 30 June 2014 by the trained individuals, on children aged 2–59 months with clinically diagnosed pneumonia were analysed.FindingsOf the 14 092 children included in the analysis, 13 266 (94.1%) were successfully checked by oximetry. Among the children with chest indrawing and/or danger signs, those with a measured oxygen saturation below  90% were more than twice as likely to have been referred as those with higher saturations (84.3% [385/457] vs 41.5% [871/2099]; P < 0.001). The availability of oximetry appeared to have increased the referral rate for severely hypoxaemic children without chest indrawing or danger signs from 0% to 27.2% (P < 0.001). In the absence of oximetry, if the relevant World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines published in 2014 had been applied, 390/568 (68.7%) severely hypoxaemic children at study health centres and 52/84 (61.9%) severely hypoxaemic children seen by community health workers would have been considered ineligible for referral.ConclusionImplementation of pulse oximetry by our trainees substantially increased the referrals of Malawian children with severe hypoxaemic pneumonia. When data from oximetry were excluded, retrospective application of the guidelines published by WHO in 2014 failed to identify a considerable proportion of severely hypoxaemic children eligible only via oximetry.

BackgroundIn Malawi, maternal mortality remains high. Existing maternal death reviews fail to adequately review most deaths, or capture those that occur outside the health system. We assessed the value of community involvement to improve capture and response to community maternal deaths.MethodsWe designed and piloted a community-linked maternal death review (CLMDR) process in Mchinji District, Malawi, which partnered community and health facility stakeholders to identify and review maternal deaths and generate actions to prevent future deaths. The CLMDR process involved five stages: community verbal autopsy, community and facility review meetings, a public meeting and bimonthly reviews involving both community and facility representatives.ResultsThe CLMDR process was found to be comparable to a previous research-driven surveillance system at identifying deaths in Mchinji District (population 456 500 in 2008). 52 maternal deaths were identified between July 2011 and June 2012, 27 (52%) of which would not have been identified without community involvement. Based on district estimates of population (500 000) and crude birth rate (35 births per 1000 population), the maternal mortality ratio was around 300 maternal deaths per 100 000 live births. Of the 41 cases that started the CLMDR process, 28 (68%) completed all five stages. We found the CLMDR process to increase the quantity of information available and to involve a wider range of stakeholders in maternal death review (MDR). The process resulted in high rates of completion of community-planned actions (82%), and district hospital (67%) and health centre (65%) actions to prevent maternal deaths.ConclusionsCLMDR is an important addition to the established forms of MDR. It shows potential as a maternal death surveillance system, and may be applicable to similar contexts with high maternal mortality.

BackgroundThe pneumococcal conjugate vaccine’s (PCV) impact on childhood pneumonia during programmatic conditions in Africa is poorly understood. Following PCV13 introduction in Malawi in November 2011, we evaluated the case burden and rates of childhood pneumonia.Methods and FindingsBetween January 1, 2012-June 30, 2014 we conducted active pneumonia surveillance in children <5 years at seven hospitals, 18 health centres, and with 38 community health workers in two districts, central Malawi. Eligible children had clinical pneumonia per Malawi guidelines, defined as fast breathing only, chest indrawing +/- fast breathing, or, ≥1 clinical danger sign. Since pulse oximetry was not in the Malawi guidelines, oxygenation <90% defined hypoxemic pneumonia, a distinct category from clinical pneumonia. We quantified the pneumonia case burden and rates in two ways. We compared the period immediately following vaccine introduction (early) to the period with >75% three-dose PCV13 coverage (post). We also used multivariable time-series regression, adjusting for autocorrelation and exploring seasonal variation and alternative model specifications in sensitivity analyses.The early versus post analysis showed an increase in cases and rates of total, fast breathing, and indrawing pneumonia and a decrease in danger sign and hypoxemic pneumonia, and pneumonia mortality. At 76% three-dose PCV13 coverage, versus 0%, the time-series model showed a non-significant increase in total cases (+47%, 95% CI: -13%, +149%, p = 0.154); fast breathing cases increased 135% (+39%, +297%, p = 0.001), however, hypoxemia fell 47% (-5%, -70%, p = 0.031) and hospital deaths decreased 36% (-1%, -58%, p = 0.047) in children <5 years. We observed a shift towards disease without danger signs, as the proportion of cases with danger signs decreased by 65% (-46%, -77%, p<0.0001). These results were generally robust to plausible alternative model specifications.ConclusionsThirty months after PCV13 introduction in Malawi, the health system burden and rates of the severest forms of childhood pneumonia, including hypoxemia and death, have markedly decreased.