An international field campaign, Dynamics of the Madden Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO), took place in the Indian Ocean during October 2011–March 2012 to collect observations for the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), especially its convective initiation processes. The large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions during the campaign are documented here. The ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) states, the monthly mean monsoon circulation and its associated precipitation, humidity, vertical and meridional/zonal overturning cells, and ocean surface currents are discussed. The evolution of MJO events is described using various fields and indices that have been used to subdivide the campaign into three periods. These periods were 1) 17 September–8 December 2011 (period 1), which featured two robust MJO events that circumnavigated the global tropics with a period of less than 45 days; 2) 9 December 2011–31 January 2012, which contained less coherent activity (period 2); and 3) 1 February–12 April 2012, a period that featured the strongest and most slowly propagating MJO event of the campaign (period 3). Activities of convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin and equatorial Rossby (ER) waves and their interaction with the MJO are discussed. The overview of the atmospheric and oceanic variability during the field campaign raises several scientific issues pertaining to our understanding of the MJO, or lack thereof. Among others, roles of Kelvin and ER waves in MJO convective initiation, convection-circulation decoupling on the MJO scale, applications of MJO filtering methods and indices, and ocean–atmosphere coupling need further research attention.
The primary objective of this study is to investigate the recent variability of the eastern African climate. The region of interest is also known as the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), and comprises the countries of Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, and Tanzania.The analysis was based primarily on the construction of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of gauge rainfall data and on CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data, derived from a combination of rain-gauge observations and satellite estimates. The investigation is based on the period 1961-2001 for the 'short rains' season of eastern Africa of October through to December. The EOF analysis was supplemented by projection of National Centers for Environmental Prediction wind data onto the rainfall eigenmodes to understand the rainfall-circulation relationships. Furthermore, correlation and composite analyses have been performed with the Climatic Research Unit globally averaged surface-temperature time series to explore the potential relationship between the climate of eastern Africa and global warming.The most dominant mode of variability (EOF1) based on CMAP data over eastern Africa corresponds to El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) climate variability. It is associated with above-normal rainfall amounts during the short rains throughout the entire region, except for Sudan. The corresponding anomalous low-level circulation is dominated by easterly inflow from the Indian Ocean, and to a lesser extent the Congo tropical rain forest, into the positive rainfall anomaly region that extends across most of eastern Africa. The easterly inflow into eastern Africa is part of diffluent outflow from the maritime continent during the warm ENSO events. The second eastern African EOF (trend mode) is associated with decadal variability. In distinct contrast from the ENSO mode pattern, the trend mode is characterized by positive rainfall anomalies over the northern sector of eastern Africa and opposite conditions over the southern sector. This rainfall trend mode eluded detection in previous studies that did not include recent decades of data, because the signal was still relatively weak. The wind projection onto this mode indicates that the primary flow that feeds the positive anomaly region over the northern part of eastern Africa emanates primarily from the rainfall-deficient southern region of eastern Africa and Sudan. Although we do not assign attribution of the trend mode to global warming (in part because of the relatively short period of analysis), the evidence, based on our results and previous studies, strongly suggests a potential connection.
Using the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS), the climatology of tropical cyclones is compared between two global best track datasets: 1) the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) subset of IBTrACS (IBTrACS-WMO) and 2) a combination of data from the National Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (NHC1JTWC). Comparing the climatologies between IBTrACS-WMO and NHC1JTWC highlights some of the heterogeneities inherent in these datasets for the period of global satellite coverage 1981-2010. The results demonstrate the sensitivity of these climatologies to the choice of best track dataset. Previous studies have examined best track heterogeneities in individual regions, usually the North Atlantic and west Pacific. This study puts those regional issues into their global context. The differences between NHC1JTWC and IBTrACS-WMO are greatest in the west Pacific, where the strongest storms are substantially weaker in IBTrACS-WMO. These disparities strongly affect the global measures of tropical cyclone activity because 30% of the world's tropical cyclones form in the west Pacific. Because JTWC employs similar procedures throughout most of the globe, the comparisons in this study highlight differences between WMO agencies. For example, NHC1JTWC has more 96-kt (;49 m s 21 ) storms than IBTrACS-WMO in the west Pacific but fewer in the Australian region. This discrepancy probably points to differing operational procedures between the WMO agencies in the two regions. Without better documentation of historical analysis procedures, the only way to remedy these heterogeneities will be through systematic reanalysis.
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