We examined the impacts of possible future land development patterns on the biodiversity of a landscape. Our landscape data included a remote sensing derived map of the current habitat of the study area and six maps of future habitat distributions resulting from different land development scenarios. Our species data included lists of all bird, mammal, reptile, and amphibian species in the study area, their habitat associations, and area requirements for each. We estimated the area requirements using home ranges, sampled population densities, or genetic area requirements that incorporate dispersal distances. Our measures of biodiversity were species richness and habitat abundance. We calculated habitat abundance in two ways. First, we computed the total habitat area for each species in each landscape. Second, we calculated the number of habitat units for each species in each landscape by dividing the size of each habitat patch in the landscape by the area requirement and summing over all patches. Species richness was based on presence of habitat. Species became extinct in the landscape if they had no habitat area or no habitat units, respectively. We then computed ratios of habitat abundance in each future landscape to habitat abundance in the present for each species. We also computed the ratio of future to present species richness. We then calculated summary statistics across all species. Species richness changed little from present to future. There were distinctly greater risks to habitat abundance in landscapes that extrapolated from present trends or zoning patterns, however, as opposed to landscapes in which land development activities followed more constrained patterns. These results were stable when tested using Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity tests on the area requirements. We conclude that this methodology can begin to discriminate the effects of potential changes in land development on vertebrate biodiversity.

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This paper presents a six-level framework that organizes questions associated with a landscape design problem. Each has an associated modeling type. The framework can be used to integrate applicable knowledge and also to identify areas where contributions of theory are needed. It is proposed that an appropriate project method can result (in large part) from the articulation of the six levels of models in reverse order from, and prior to, the actua! carrying out of a project. It can be further argued that both .effectiveness and efficiency are dependent upon the progression of the project through all six levels. Finally, if the linking of question and model is useful, the framework can be the basis of a strategy of professional education.

Sustainable urban development is considered a complex problem. Geodesign applies systems thinking to such problems using a dynamic and collaborative process wherein iteration is necessary to address diverse objectives. Preparation and execution of a two-day research workshop explored two aspects of geodesign dynamics using a new software platform called GeodesignHub.com. One aspect of dynamics concerned the cross-systems influence of proposed projects and policies as related to ten systems (e.g. transportation, housing, surface water, forest preserves etc.) influencing watershed sustainability in King County, Washington. A second aspect investigated the interaction among six multi-disciplinary design teams and each pursuing different considerations in decision workflow processes. A decision workflow called the Steinitz Geodesign Framework was scoped, designed, and implemented to address meaningful and substantive policy and project proposals for achieving consensus on a 40-year plan design.Workshop participants addressed targets among ten subsystems for sustainable urban development. Findings suggest the software provided support for high-performance collaboration when teams moved toward their targets and when negotiating to achieve a single plan outcome, but the urban growth areas and or housing densities established through policy are likely in need of reconsideration to accommodate population growth. Conclusions about findings and prospects for future research are provided.