The present study aims to review palaeoecological evidence for environmental changes induced by human activities over the last few millennia in the montane landscapes of Morocco. The study is based on well-dated pollen and geochemical records from the Rif and the Middle Atlas mountains, to show spatial and temporal variation in the onset and intensity of exploitation of forest, soil and mineral resources. Before ca. 2000 BP, anthropogenic impact was minimal. At about that time, abrupt changes of the arboreal pollen proportions, with a decline in all tree taxa, indicate a reduction of the forest cover interpreted as being anthropogenic. In the Rif Mountains, increased influx of carbonates (Ca) in the sedimentary records indicates enhanced soil erosion coincident with the reduction in tree cover. In the Middle Atlas, reduced forest cover is linked to geochemical evidence for mining and metallurgy of lead (Pb), copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn). These industrial activities correspond to the expansion of the Roman Empire into Morocco at around AD 40 and show a decline when the Romans were displaced by the Vandals about five centuries later

The threatened conifer Abies cilicica currently persists in Lebanon in geographically isolated forest patches. The impact of demographic and evolutionary processes on population genetic diversity and structure were assessed using 10 nuclear microsatellite loci. All remnant 15 local populations revealed a low genetic variation but a high recent effective population size. FST-based measures of population genetic differentiation revealed a low spatial genetic structure, but Bayesian analysis of population structure identified a significant Northeast-Southwest population structure. Populations showed significant but weak isolation-by-distance, indicating non-equilibrium conditions between dispersal and genetic drift. Bayesian assignment tests detected an asymmetric Northeast-Southwest migration involving some long-distance dispersal events. We suggest that the persistence and Northeast-Southwest geographic structure of Abies cilicica in Lebanon is the result of at least two demographic processes during its recent evolutionary history: (1) recent migration to currently marginal populations and (2) local persistence through altitudinal shifts along a mountainous topography. These results might help us better understand the mechanisms involved in the species response to expected climate change.

No abstract

A new fossil record from the southern Middle Atlas spans continuously the last 25 000 years and provides evidence of an increased amount of snow precipitation during the last glacial period and a warm early Holocene with rather dry climate conditions. This environmental reconstruction is based on a multi‐proxy approach that integrates pollen, micro‐charcoals, grain size and geochemical analysis. During the last glacial period we observe a strong presence of aquatic plants species that today flower during late spring and summer. These occurrences are related to an increased amount of snow precipitation on the surrounding mountains which fed the marsh during the summer season. Although the early Holocene reveals a slight and steady expansion of Mediterranean oaks, the semi‐arid Artemisia steppe remained dominant in the landscape until 6.8 ka cal BP. Thus, the early Holocene seems to have been less humid than elsewhere in North Africa. The Atlas cedars began to establish around 6 ka cal BP. This indicates that the amount of annual rainfall increased after the mid‐Holocene. The late Holocene is marked by an increase of fire events, which may be related to a strengthening of the dry season and/or a higher seasonality.

Long-term vegetation studies are needed to better predict the impact of future climate change on vegetation structure and distribution. According to the IPCC scenario, the Mediterranean region is expected to undergo significant climatic variability over the course of this century. Cedrus libani (A. Rich), in particular, is currently distributed in limited areas in the Eastern Mediterranean region, which are expected to be affected by such climate change. In order to predict the impact of future global warming, we have used fossil pollen data and model simulations. Palaeobotanical data show that C. libani has been affected by both climate change and human activities. Populations of C. libani survived in refugial zones when climatic conditions were less favourable and its range extended during periods of more suitable climate conditions. Simulations of its future geographical distribution for the year 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model show that only three areas from Mount Lebanon may allow its survival. These results extrapolated for cedar forests for the entire Eastern Mediterranean region show that forests in Syria are also threatened by future global warming. In southern Turkey, cedar forests seem to be less threatened. These results are expected to help in the long-term conservation of cedar forests in the Near East.