In recent decades, global climate change [1] has caused profound biological changes across the planet [2-6]. However, there is a great disparity in the strength of evidence among different ecosystems and between hemispheres: changes on land have been well documented through long-term studies, but similar direct evidence for impacts of warming is virtually absent from the oceans [3, 7], where only a few studies on individual species of intertidal invertebrates, plankton, and commercially important fish in the North Atlantic and North Pacific exist. This disparity of evidence is precarious for biological conservation because of the critical role of the marine realm in regulating the Earth's environmental and ecological functions, and the associated socioeconomic well-being of humans [8]. We interrogated a database of >20,000 herbarium records of macroalgae collected in Australia since the 1940s and documented changes in communities and geographical distribution limits in both the Indian and Pacific Oceans, consistent with rapid warming over the past five decades [9, 10]. We show that continued warming might drive potentially hundreds of species toward and beyond the edge of the Australian continent where sustained retreat is impossible. The potential for global extinctions is profound considering the many endemic seaweeds and seaweed-dependent marine organisms in temperate Australia.

Generic concepts in the economically important agarophyte red algal family Gracilariaceae were evaluated based on maximum parsimony, Bayesian likelihood, and minimum evolution analyses of the chloroplast‐encoded rbc L gene from 67 specimens worldwide. The results confirm the monophyly of the family and identify three large clades, one of which corresponds to the ancestral antiboreal genera Curdiea and Melanthalia, one to Gracilariopsis, and one to Gracilaria sensu lato, which contains nine distinct independent evolutionary lineages, including Hydropuntia. The species currently attributed to Hydropuntia comprise a single well‐supported clade composed of two distinct lineages. The two most basal clades within Gracilaria sensu lato deserve generic rank: a new genus centered around G. chilensis Bird, McLachlan et Oliveira and G. aff. tenuistipitata Chang et Xia and a resurrected Hydropuntia encompassing primarily Indo‐Pacific (G. urvillei [Montagne] Abbott, G. edulis [S. Gmelin] P. Silva, G. eucheumatoides Harvey, G. preissiana [Sonder] Womersley, and G. rangiferina [Kützing] Piccone) and western Atlantic species (G. cornea J. Agardh, G. crassissima P. et H. Crouan in Mazé et Schramm, G. usneoides [C. Agardh] J. Agardh, G. caudata J. Agardh, and G. secunda P. et H. Crouan in Mazé et Schramm). Cystocarpic features within the Gracilaria sensu lato clades appear to be more phylogenetically informative than male characters. The textorii‐type spermatangial configuration is represented in two distinct clusters of Gracilaria. The rbc L genetic divergence among the Gracilariaceae genera ranged between 8.46% and 16.41%, providing at least 2.5 times more genetic variation than does the 18S nuclear rDNA. rbc L also resolves intrageneric relationships, especially within Gracilaria sensu lato. The current number of gracilariacean species is underestimated in the western Atlantic because of convergence in habit and apparent homoplasy in vegetative and reproductive anatomy.

Aim Understanding the relative importance of climatic and non‐climatic distribution drivers for co‐occurring, functionally similar species is required to assess potential consequences of climate change. This understanding is, however, lacking for most ecosystems. We address this knowledge gap and forecast changes in distribution for habitat‐forming seaweeds in one of the world's most species‐rich temperate reef ecosystems. Location The Great Southern Reef. The full extent of Australia's temperate coastline. Methods We assessed relationships between climatic and non‐climatic environmental data known to influence seaweed, and the presence of 15 habitat‐forming seaweeds. Distributional data (herbarium records) were analysed with MAXENT and generalized linear and additive models, to construct species distribution models at 0.2° spatial resolution, and project possible distribution shifts under the RCP 6.0 (medium) and 2.6 (conservative) emissions scenarios of ocean warming for 2100. Results Summer temperatures, and to a lesser extent winter temperatures, were the strongest distribution predictors for temperate habitat‐forming seaweeds in Australia. Projections for 2100 predicted major poleward shifts for 13 of the 15 species, on average losing 78% (range: 36%–100%) of their current distributions under RCP 6.0 and 62% (range: 27%–100%) under RCP 2.6. The giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) and three prominent fucoids (Durvillaea potatorum, Xiphophora chondrophylla and Phyllospora comosa) were predicted to become extinct from Australia under RCP 6.0. Many species currently distributed up the west and east coasts, including the dominant kelp Ecklonia radiata (71% and 49% estimated loss for RPC 6.0 and 2.6, respectively), were predicted to become restricted to the south coast. Main conclusions In close accordance with emerging observations in Australia and globally, our study predicted major range contractions of temperate seaweeds in coming decades. These changes will likely have significant impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning because large seaweeds are foundation species for 100s of habitat‐associated plants and animals, many of which are socio‐economically important and endemic to southern Australia.