Species have strong indirect effects on others, and predicting these effects is a central challenge in ecology. Prey species sharing an enemy (predator or parasitoid) can be linked by apparent competition, but it is unknown whether this process is strong enough to be a community-wide structuring mechanism that could be used to predict future states of diverse food webs. Whether species abundances are spatially coupled by enemy movement across different habitats is also untested. Here, using a field experiment, we show that predicted apparent competitive effects between species, mediated via shared parasitoids, can significantly explain future parasitism rates and herbivore abundances. These predictions are successful even across edges between natural and managed forests, following experimental reduction of herbivore densities by aerial spraying of insecticide over 20 hectares. This result shows that trophic indirect effects propagate across networks and habitats in important, predictable ways, with implications for landscape planning, invasion biology and biological control.

Understanding the effects of biodiversity on community persistence and productivity is key to managing both natural and production systems. Because rare species face greater danger of extinction, species evenness, a measure of how similar abundances are across species in a community, is seen as a key component of biodiversity. However, previous studies have failed to find a consistent association of species evenness with species survival and biomass production. Here we provide a theoretical framework for the relationship among these three elements. We demonstrate that the lack of consistent outcomes is not an idiosyncratic artifact of different studies but can be unified under one common framework. Applying a niche theory approach, we confirm that under demographic stochasticity evenness is a general indicator of the risk of future species extinctions in a community, in accordance with the majority of empirical studies. In contrast, evenness cannot be used as a direct indicator of the level of biomass production in a community. When a single species dominates, as expressed by the constraints imposed by the population dynamics, biomass production depends on the niche position of the dominating species and can increase or decrease with evenness. We demonstrate that high species evenness and an intermediate level of biomass production is the configuration that maximizes the average species survival probability in response to demographic stochasticity.

Complementary resource use and redundancy of species that fulfill the same ecological role are two mechanisms that can respectively increase and stabilize process rates in ecosystems. For example, predator complementarity and redundancy can determine prey consumption rates and their stability, yet few studies take into account the multiple predator species attacking multiple prey at different rates in natural communities. Thus, it remains unclear whether these biodiversity mechanisms are important determinants of consumption in entire predator-prey assemblages, such that food-web interaction structure determines community-wide consumption and stability. Here, we use empirical quantitative food webs to study the community-wide effects of functional complementarity and redundancy of consumers (parasitoids) on herbivore control in temperate forests. We find that complementarity in host resource use by parasitoids was a strong predictor of absolute parasitism rates at the community level and that redundancy in host-use patterns stabilized community-wide parasitism rates in space, but not through time. These effects can potentially explain previous contradictory results from predator diversity research. Phylogenetic diversity (measured using taxonomic distance) did not explain functional complementarity or parasitism rates, so could not serve as a surrogate measure for functional complementarity. Our study shows that known mechanisms underpinning predator diversity effects on both functioning and stability can easily be extended to link food webs to ecosystem functioning.