Background: Administrative health care databases can be efficiently analyzed to describe the degree to which patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) have access to kidney transplantation. Measures of access to transplantation are better represented when restricting to only those patients eligible to receive a kidney transplant. The way administrative data can be used to assess kidney transplant eligibility in the absence of clinical data has not been well described. Objective: To demonstrate a method that uses administrative health care databases to identify patients with ESKD who have no recorded contraindication to receiving a kidney transplant. Design and setting: Population-based cohort study using linked administrative health care databases in Ontario, Canada. Patients: Adult patients with ESKD approaching the need for dialysis (predialysis) or receiving maintenance dialysis between January 1, 2013 and March 31, 2015 in Ontario, Canada. Measurements: Recipient of a kidney-only or kidney-pancreas transplant. Methods: We assessed more than 80 baseline characteristics, including demographic information, comorbidities, kidney-specific characteristics, and referral and listing criteria for kidney transplantation. We compared these characteristics between patients who did and did not receive a kidney transplant. Results: We included 23 642 patients with ESKD (11 195 who were predialysis and 12 447 receiving maintenance dialysis). Over a median follow-up of 3.2 years (25th, 75th percentile: 1.3, 5.6), 3215 (13.6%) received a kidney-only or kidney-pancreas transplant. Of the studied characteristics available in administrative databases, >97% of patients with one or more of these characteristics did not receive a kidney transplant during follow-up: ESKD-modified Charlson Comorbidity Index score ≥7 (a higher score represents greater comorbidity), home oxygen use, age above 75 years, dementia, living in a long-term care facility, receiving at least one physician house call in the past year, and a combination of select malignancies (ie, lung, lymphoma, cervical, colorectal, liver, active multiple myeloma, and bladder cancer). Using these combined criteria reduced the total number of patients from 23 642 to 12 539 with no recorded contraindications to transplant (a 47% reduction), while the proportion who received a kidney transplant changed from 13.6% (denominator of 23 642) to 24.9% (denominator of 12 539). Limitations: Administrative databases are unable to capture all the complexities of determining transplant eligibility. Conclusion: We identified several criteria available within administrative health care databases that can be used to identify patients with ESKD who have no recorded contraindications to kidney transplant. These criteria could be applied when reporting measures of access to kidney transplantation that require knowledge of transplant eligibility.

Background: Eligible patients with kidney failure should have equal access to kidney transplantation. Transplant referral is the first crucial step toward receiving a kidney transplant; however, studies suggest substantial variation in the rate of kidney transplant referral across regions. The province of Ontario, Canada, has a public, single-payer health care system with 27 regional chronic kidney disease (CKD) programs. The probability of being referred for kidney transplant may not be equal across CKD programs. Objective: To determine whether there is variability in kidney transplant referral rates across Ontario’s CKD programs. Design: Population-based cohort study using linked administrative health care databases from January 1, 2013, to November 1, 2016. Setting: Twenty-seven regional CKD programs in the province of Ontario, Canada. Patients: Patients approaching the need for dialysis (advanced CKD) and patients receiving maintenance dialysis (maximum follow-up: November 1, 2017). Measurements: Kidney transplant referral. Methods: We calculated the 1-year unadjusted cumulative probability of kidney transplant referral for Ontario’s 27 CKD programs using the complement of Kaplan-Meier estimator. We calculated standardized referral ratios (SRRs) for each CKD program, using expected referrals from a 2-staged Cox proportional hazards model, adjusting for patient characteristics in the first stage. Standardized referral ratios with a value less than 1 were below the provincial average (maximum possible follow-up of 4 years 10 months). In an additional analysis, we grouped CKD programs according to 5 geographic regions. Results: Among 8641 patients with advanced CKD, the 1-year cumulative probability of kidney transplant referral ranged from 0.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.2%-3.7%) to 21.0% (95% CI: 17.5%-25.2%) across the 27 CKD programs. The adjusted SRR ranged from 0.2 (95% CI: 0.1-0.4) to 4.2 (95% CI: 2.1-7.5). Among 6852 patients receiving maintenance dialysis, the 1-year cumulative probability of transplant referral ranged from 6.4% (95% CI: 4.0%-10.2%) to 34.5% (95% CI: 29.5%-40.1%) across CKD programs. The adjusted SRR ranged from 0.2 (95% CI: 0.1-0.3) to 1.8 (95% CI: 1.6-2.1). When we grouped CKD programs according to geographic region, we found that patients residing in Northern regions had a substantially lower 1-year cumulative probability of transplant referral. Limitations: Our cumulative probability estimates only captured referrals within the first year of advanced CKD or maintenance dialysis initiation. Conclusions: There is marked variability in the probability of kidney transplant referral across CKD programs operating in a publicly funded health care system.