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Public reporting burder for this collection of information is estibated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing this collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burder ABSTRACT Changes in the international system since the end of the Cold War have necessitated reevaluation of the theoretical assumptions that provided the foundations of deterrence theory for the past six decades. This study is part of a continuing effort to use Strategic Personality Typing to gain insight into how to design more supple and effective deterrent strategies in the face of a potentially more diverse cast of nuclear players. It focuses on how small and medium nuclear powers might use nuclear weapons to try to deter US military intervention in regional crises. The paper addresses not only deterring Iraq and Iran, but also preventing states like them from using nuclear weapons to deter the US from pursuing its global strategic interests. The study centers around two case studies based on plausible future scenarios, both set in the not-too-distant future but before deployment of a reliable and effective theater-wide ballistic missile defense system. Each case study begins with a brief survey of how the historical plots of Iraq and Iran shaped their Ultimate Concerns and Strategic Personalities. The study concludes with a discussion of how the differences in the Strategic Personalities of Iraq and Iran lead to different perceptions of their strategic interests, of how the United States threatens those interests, and how those differences shape the challenges for US nuclear deterrence. 15. SUBJECT TERMS nuclear deterrence; deterrence;strategic personality; strategic personality type ? Iraq; strategic personality types ? Iran;

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