No abstract

The US Supreme Court's ruling on the Affordable Care Act in 2012 allowed states to opt out of the health reform law's Medicaid expansion. Since that ruling, fourteen governors have announced that their states will not expand their Medicaid programs. We used the RAND COMPARE microsimulation to analyze how opting out of Medicaid expansion would affect coverage and spending, and whether alternative policy options-such as partial expansion of Medicaid-could cover as many people at lower costs to states. With fourteen states opting out, we estimate that 3.6 million fewer people would be insured, federal transfer payments to those states could fall by $8.4 billion, and state spending on uncompensated care could increase by $1 billion in 2016, compared to what would be expected if all states participated in the expansion. These effects were only partially mitigated by alternative options we considered. We conclude that in terms of coverage, cost, and federal payments, states would do best to expand Medicaid.

No abstract

We investigate the discharge practices at a large medical center. Specifically, we look for indications that patients are being discharged sooner because of hospital bed-capacity constraints. Using survival analysis techniques, we find statistically significant evidence to indicate that surgeons adjust their discharge practices to accommodate the surgical schedule and number of available recovery beds. We find higher discharge rates on days when utilization is high. We also find an increased discharge rate on days when more surgeries are scheduled. Our findings suggest that discharge decisions are made with bed-capacity constraints in mind. We discuss possible explanations for this, as well as the medical and managerial implications of our findings.