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Background Heart failure is a clinical syndrome characterised by a reduced ability of the heart to pump blood. Patients with heart failure have a high mortality rate, and physicians need reliable prognostic predictions to make informed decisions about the appropriate application of devices, transplantation, medications, and palliative care. In this study, we demonstrate that combining symbolic regression with the Cox proportional hazards model improves the ability to predict death due to heart failure compared to using the Cox proportional hazards model alone. Methods We used a newly invented symbolic regression method called the QLattice to analyse a data set of medical records for 299 Pakistani patients diagnosed with heart failure. The QLattice identified non-linear mathematical transformations of the available covariates, which we then used in a Cox model to predict survival. Results An exponential function of age, the inverse of ejection fraction, and the inverse of serum creatinine were identified as the best risk factors for predicting heart failure deaths. A Cox model fitted on these transformed covariates had improved predictive performance compared with a Cox model on the same covariates without mathematical transformations. Conclusion Symbolic regression is a way to find transformations of covariates from patients’ medical records which can improve the performance of survival regression models. At the same time, these simple functions are intuitive and easy to apply in clinical settings. The direct interpretability of the simple forms may help researchers gain new insights into the actual causal pathways leading to deaths.

In Denmark, a nationwide COVID-19 lockdown was implemented on March 12, 2020 and eased on April 14, 2020. The COVID-19 lockdown featured reduced prevalence of extremely preterm or extremely low birthweight births. This study aims to explore the impact of this COVID-19 lockdown on term birthweights in Denmark. We conducted a nationwide register-based cohort study on 27,870 live singleton infants, born at term (weeks 37–41), between March 12 and April 14, 2015–2020, using data from the Danish Neonatal Screening Biobank. Primary outcomes, corrected for confounders, were birthweight, small-for-gestational-age (SGA), and large-for-gestational-age (LGA), comparing the COVID-19 lockdown to the previous five years. Data were analysed using linear regression to assess associations with birthweight. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess associations with relative-size-for-gestational-age (xGA) categories. Adjusted mean birthweight was significantly increased by 16.9 g (95% CI = 4.1–31.3) during the lockdown period. A dip in mean birthweight was found in gestational weeks 37 and 38 balanced by an increase in weeks 40 and 41. The 2020 lockdown period was associated with an increased LGA prevalence (aOR 1.13, 95% CI = 1.05–1.21). No significant changes in proportions of xGA groups were found between 2015 and 2019. The nationwide COVID-19 lockdown resulted in a small but significant increase in birthweight and proportion of LGA infants, driven by an increase in birthweight in gestational weeks 40 and 41.

Heart failure is a clinical syndrome characterised by a reduced ability of the heart to pump blood. Patients with heart failure have a high mortality rate, and physicians need reliable prognostic predictions to make informed decisions about the appropriate application of devices, transplantation, medications, and palliative care. In this study, we demonstrate that combining symbolic regression with the Cox proportional hazards model improves the ability to predict death due to heart failure compared to using the Cox proportional hazards model alone.We used a newly invented symbolic regression method called the QLat-tice to analyse a data set of medical records for 299 Pakistani patients diagnosed with heart failure. The QLattice identified a minimal set of mathematical transformations of the available covariates, which we then used in a Cox model to predict survival.An exponential function of age, the inverse of ejection fraction, and the inverse of serum creatinine were identified as the best risk factors for predicting heart failure deaths. A Cox model fitted on these transformed covariates had improved predictive performance compared with a Cox model on the same covariates without mathematical transformations.Symbolic regression is a way to find transformations of covariates from patients’ medical records which can improve the performance of survival regression models. At the same time, these simple functions are intuitive and easy to apply in clinical settings. The direct interpretability of the simple forms may help researchers gain new insights into the actual causal pathways leading to deaths.