Many hydrologic studies that are the basis for water resources planning and management rely on streamflow information. Calibration and use of hydrologic models to extend flow series based on rainfall data, perform flood frequency analysis, or develop flood maps for land use planning and design of engineering works, such as channels, dams, bridges, and water intake, are examples of such studies. In most real-world engineering applications, errors in flow data are neglected or not adequately addressed. However, because flows are estimated based on the water level measurements by fitted rating curves, they can be subjected to significant uncertainties. How large these uncertainties are and how they can impact the results of such studies is a topic of interest for researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers of water resources. The quantitative assessment of these uncertainties is important to obtain a more realistic description of many water resources related studies. River restoration in many areas is limited by data availability and funding. A means to assess the uncertainty of flow data to be used in the design and analysis of river restoration projects that is cost effective and has minimal data requirements would greatly improve the reliability of river restoration design. This paper proposes an assessment of how uncertainties related to rating curves and frequency analysis may affect the results of flood mapping in a real-world application to a small watershed with limited data. A Bayesian approach was performed to obtain the posterior distributions for the model parameters and the HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System) hydraulic model was used to propagate the uncertainties in the water surface elevation profiles. The analysis was conducted using freely available data and open source software, greatly reducing traditional analysis costs. The results demonstrate that for the study case the uncertainty related to the frequency analysis study impacted the water profiles more significantly than the uncertainty associated with the rating curve.

No abstract

In August 2013, the Brazilian Cooperation Agency (ABC) and Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) signed a development agreement for the Strengthening National Strategy on Integrated Management of Disaster Risk (GIDES). The main objective is to formulate strategies to improve alert systems and risk evaluation methods used in Brazil by incorporating them in the urban expansion policy.These strategies include technical activities such as, knowledge exchanging among technical experts from Brazil and Japan, field surveys, several meetings and scientific and technological researches. All these activities were conducted to produce technical manuals such as the Debris Flow countermeasure manual that is outlined in this paper.The present paper focuses on debris flow countermeasures as proposed in the specific manual following prevention-reconstruction strategy by reducing risks and also increasing the safety of disaster -affected areas. Furthermore, this paper presents two study cases, in Nova Friburgo and Blumenau cities, at Rio de Janeiro and Santa Catarina states, respectively, with the purpose of verifying and improve the proposed methodology. BRAZILIAN MANUAL FOR COUNTERMEASURES AGAINST DEBRIS FLOW Debris flow countermeasures in BrazilLarge debris flow disasters in Brazil are considerably less frequent than other mass movements events. However, part of the low rates of debris flow occurrences in Brazilian records is due to misinterpretations of observed mass movements by local authorities . Therefore , countermeasures implemented to attend such types of disasters in Brazil are quite rare. The President Bernardes Refinery case [Kanji et al ., 2008], in Cubatão, São Paulo, is one of the most reported debris flow countermeasures case in the country.This debris flow event took place on February 6,

Modelagem hidrológica sob uma abordagem bayesiana: Comparação de algoritmos MCMC e análise da influência da função verossimilhança na estimativa dos parâmetros e descrição das incertezas [Distrito Federal] 2016. xix, 188p., 210 x 297 mm (ENC/FT/UnB, Mestre, Tecnologia Ambiental e Recursos Hídricos, 2016).

No abstract