Summary 1.Comprehensive knowledge of the fundamental spatial ecology of marine species is critical to allow the identification of key habitats and the likely sources of anthropogenic threats, thus informing effective conservation strategies. 2. Research on migratory marine vertebrates has lagged behind many similar terrestrial animal groups, but studies using electronic tagging systems and molecular techniques offer great insights. 3. Marine turtles have complex life history patterns, spanning wide spatio-temporal scales. As a result of this multidimensional complexity, and despite extensive effort, there are no populations for which a truly holistic understanding of the spatial aspects of the life history has been attained. There is a particular lack of information regarding the distribution and habitats utilized during the first few years of life. 4. We used satellite tracking technology to track individual turtles following nesting at the green turtle Chelonia mydas nesting colony at Poila˜o Island, Guinea Bissau; the largest breeding aggregation in the eastern Atlantic. 5. We further contextualize these data with pan-Atlantic molecular data and oceanographic current modelling to gain insights into likely dispersal patterns of hatchlings and small pelagic juveniles. 6. All adult turtles remained in the waters of West Africa, with strong connectivity demonstrated with Banc D'Arguin, Mauritania. 7. Despite shortcomings in current molecular markers, we demonstrate evidence for profound sub-structuring of marine turtle stocks across the Atlantic; with a high likelihood based on oceanographic modelling that most turtles from Guinea-Bissau are found in the eastern Atlantic. 8. Synthesis and applications. There is an increased need for a better understanding of spatial distribution of marine vertebrates demonstrating life histories with spatio-temporal complexity. We propose the synergistic use of the technologies and modelling used here as a working framework for the future rapid elucidation of the range and likely key habitats used by the different life stages from such species.

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Few studies have looked into climate change resilience of populations of wild animals. We use a model higher vertebrate, the green sea turtle, as its life history is fundamentally affected by climatic conditions, including temperature‐dependent sex determination and obligate use of beaches subject to sea level rise (SLR). We use empirical data from a globally important population in West Africa to assess resistance to climate change within a quantitative framework. We project 200 years of primary sex ratios (1900–2100) and create a digital elevation model of the nesting beach to estimate impacts of projected SLR. Primary sex ratio is currently almost balanced, with 52% of hatchlings produced being female. Under IPCC models, we predict: (a) an increase in the proportion of females by 2100 to 76%–93%, but cooler temperatures, both at the end of the nesting season and in shaded areas, will guarantee male hatchling production; (b) IPCC SLR scenarios will lead to 33.4%–43.0% loss of the current nesting area; (c) climate change will contribute to population growth through population feminization, with 32%–64% more nesting females expected by 2120; (d) as incubation temperatures approach lethal levels, however, the population will cease growing and start to decline. Taken together with other factors (degree of foraging plasticity, rookery size and trajectory, and prevailing threats), this nesting population should resist climate change until 2100, and the availability of spatial and temporal microrefugia indicates potential for resilience to predicted impacts, through the evolution of nest site selection or changes in nesting phenology. This represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of climate change resilience of a marine reptile using the most up‐to‐date IPCC models, appraising the impacts of temperature and SLR, integrated with additional ecological and demographic parameters. We suggest this as a framework for other populations, species and taxa.

Global climate change is expected to have major impacts on biodiversity. Marine turtles have temperature-dependent sex determination, and many populations produce highly femalebiased offspring sex ratios, a skew likely to increase further with global warming. We looked at one of the world's largest green turtle rookeries, in West Africa, to assess the population's primary sex ratio and resilience to climate change. In 2013 and 2014, we deployed dataloggers recording nest (n=101) and sand (n=30) temperatures, and identified hatchling sex (n=131) by histological examination of gonads. A logistic curve was fitted to the data, to allow predictions of sex ratio across habitats and through the nesting season. The population-specific pivotal temperature was 29.4ºC, and both sexes were produced within incubation temperatures from 27.6ºC to 31.4ºC: transitional range of temperatures (TRT). Primary sex ratio changed from male to female dominated across relatively small temporal and spatial scales, but was overall balanced. We estimated an exceptionally high male hatchling production of 47.7% (95% CI: 36.7-58.3%) and 44.5% (95% CI: 33.8-55.4%) in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Both the temporal and spatial variation in incubation conditions, and the wide range of the TRT, suggest resilience and potential for adaptation to climate change, if the present nesting habitat remains unchanged. These findings underline the importance of assessing site-specific parameters to understand populations' response to climate change, particularly with regard to identifying rookeries with high male hatchling production that may be key for the future conservation of sea turtles, under projected global warming scenarios.

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