Olfactory identification impairment might indicate future cognitive decline in elderly individuals. An unresolved question is to what extent this effect is dependent on the ApoE-ε4, a genotype associated with risk of Alzheimer's Disease (AD). Given the current concern about reproducibility in empirical research, we assessed this issue in a large sample (n = 1637) of older adults (60 -96 years) from the population-based longitudinal Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K). A hierarchical regression analysis was carried out to determine if a low score on an odor identification test, and the presence of ApoE-ε4, would predict the magnitude of a prospective 6-year change in the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) after controlling for demographic, health-related, and cognitive variables. We found that overall, lower odor identification performance was predictive of cognitive decline, and, as hypothesized, we found that the effect was most pronounced among ApoE-ε4 carriers. Our results from this high-powered sample suggest that in elderly carriers of the ApoE-ε4 allele, odor identification impairment provides an indication of future cognitive decline, which has relevance for the prognosis of AD.