No abstract

New melanoma therapies are being developed rapidly, complementing prevention and detection strategies for disease control. Estimating the future burden of melanoma is necessary for deciding how best to deploy limited resources to achieve effective melanoma control. Using three decades of cancer registry data (1982-2011) from six populations with moderate to high melanoma incidence (US whites and the populations of the United Kingdom, Sweden, Norway, Australia, New Zealand), we applied age-period-cohort models to describe current trends and project future incidence rates and numbers of melanomas out to 2031. Between 1982 and 2011, melanoma rates in US whites, and the populations of the United Kingdom, Sweden, and Norway increased at more than 3% annually and are projected to continue rising until at least 2022. Melanoma incidence in Australia has been declining since 2005 (-0.7% per year), and melanoma incidence in New Zealand is increasing but is projected to decline soon. The numbers of new melanoma cases will rise in all six populations because of aging populations and high age-specific rates in the elderly. In US whites, annual new cases will rise from around 70,000 in 2007-2011 to 116,000 in 2026-2031, with 79% of the increase attributable to rising age-specific rates and 21% to population growth and aging. The continued increases in case numbers in all six populations through 2031 will increase the challenges of melanoma control.

Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is a common cancer in white populations and its disease burden is often substantially underestimated. SCC occurs more often in men than women and increases dramatically with age; those affected often develop multiple primaries over time, which increases the burden. The main external cause is solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR), with immunosuppression being the other established risk factor, shown by the high SCC rates in organ transplant recipients. Sunbed use and certain genetic disorders and medical conditions are also associated with SCC, while associations with human papillomavirus infection and high bodyweight are not established. The presence of actinic keratoses (AKs) on sun-damaged skin is one of the strongest predictors of SCC in unaffected people and a very small proportion of AKs are SCC precursors, although the true rate of malignant transformation of AKs is unknown. The mainstay of SCC prevention is protection of the skin from undue sun exposure by use of clothing cover and sunscreen during summer or in sunny places. Educational, behavioural and multicomponent interventions directed at individuals ranging from parents of newborns, to school children and adolescents, to outdoor workers, have repeatedly been shown to be effective in improving sun-protective behaviours. Health policies can facilitate SCC prevention by setting standards for relevant behaviours to reduce UVR exposure, for example, by legislated restriction of the tanning industry. Skin cancer prevention initiatives are generally highly cost-effective and public investment should be encouraged to control the growing public health problems caused by SCC.