Y THE END OF 2006, AN ESTImated 2.3 million children worldwide were living with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). 1 Although most children acquire the virus through largely preventable mother-to-child transmission, roll-out of perinatal HIV prevention services has been sluggish worldwide. As a result, each day more than 1000 children become newly infected. 2 Without treatment, approximately half will die by their second birthday 3 ; however, lives can be extended and morbidity avoided with combination antiretroviral therapy (ART). In Zambia, recent progress has been made toward reducing new pediatric infections through aggressive scale-up of perinatal HIV prevention services. 4 Despite these efforts, 130 000 children are Author Affiliations are listed at the end of this article.

In a collaboration of 7 European and United States prospective studies, 44 cases of vertical human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) transmission were identified among 1202 women with RNA virus loads <1000 copies/mL at delivery or at the measurement closest to delivery. For mothers receiving antiretroviral treatment during pregnancy or at the time of delivery (or both), there was a 1.0% transmission rate (8 of 834; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.4%-1.9%), compared with 9.8% (36 of 368; 95% CI, 7.0%-13.4%) for untreated mothers (risk ratio, 0.10; 95% CI, 0.05-0.21). In multivariate analysis adjusting for study, transmission was lower with antiretroviral treatment (odds ratio [OR], 0.10; P<.001), cesarean section (OR, 0.30; P=.022), greater birth weight (P=.003), and higher CD4 cell count (P=.039). In 12 of 44 cases, multiple RNA measurements were obtained during pregnancy or at the time of delivery or within 4 months after giving birth; in 10 of the 12 cases, the geometric mean virus load was >500 copies/mL. Perinatal HIV-1 transmission occurs in only 1% of treated women with RNA virus loads <1000 copies/mL and may be almost eliminated with antiretroviral prophylaxis accompanied by suppression of maternal viremia.

In this random sampling of sites with services to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission, only 51% of HIV-exposed infants received the minimal regimen of single-dose nevirapine.

Ambitious goals for paediatric AIDS control have been set by various international bodies, including a 50% reduction in new paediatric infections by 2010. While these goals are clearly appropriate in their scope, the lack of clarity and consensus around how to monitor the effectiveness of programmes to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) makes it difficult for policy-makers to mount a coordinated response. In this paper, we develop the case for using population HIV-free child survival as a gold standard metric to measure the effectiveness of PMTCT programmes, and go on to consider multiple study designs and source populations. Finally, we propose a novel community survey-based approach that could be implemented widely throughout the developing world with minor modifications to ongoing Demographic and Health Surveys.

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