The development of crop varieties with stable performance in future environmental conditions represents a critical challenge in the context of climate change. Environmental data collected at the field level, such as soil and climatic information, can be relevant to improve predictive ability in genomic prediction models by describing more precisely genotype-by-environment interactions, which represent a key component of the phenotypic response for complex crop agronomic traits. Modern predictive modeling approaches can efficiently handle various data types and are able to capture complex nonlinear relationships in large datasets. In particular, machine learning techniques have gained substantial interest in recent years. Here we examined the predictive ability of machine learning-based models for two phenotypic traits in maize using data collected by the Maize Genomes to Fields (G2F) Initiative. The data we analyzed consisted of multi-environment trials (METs) dispersed across the United States and Canada from 2014 to 2017. An assortment of soil- and weather-related variables was derived and used in prediction models alongside genotypic data. Linear random effects models were compared to a linear regularized regression method (elastic net) and to two nonlinear gradient boosting methods based on decision tree algorithms (XGBoost, LightGBM). These models were evaluated under four prediction problems: (1) tested and new genotypes in a new year; (2) only unobserved genotypes in a new year; (3) tested and new genotypes in a new site; (4) only unobserved genotypes in a new site. Accuracy in forecasting grain yield performance of new genotypes in a new year was improved by up to 20% over the baseline model by including environmental predictors with gradient boosting methods. For plant height, an enhancement of predictive ability could neither be observed by using machine learning-based methods nor by using detailed environmental information. An investigation of key environmental factors using gradient boosting frameworks also revealed that temperature at flowering stage, frequency and amount of water received during the vegetative and grain filling stage, and soil organic matter content appeared as important predictors for grain yield in our panel of environments.

We introduce the R-package learnMET, developed as a flexible framework to enable a collection of analyses on multi-environment trial (MET) breeding data with machine learning-based models. learnMET allows the combination of genomic information with environmental data such as climate and/or soil characteristics. Notably, the package offers the possibility of incorporating weather data from field weather stations, or can retrieve global meteorological datasets from a NASA database. Daily weather data can be aggregated in daily windows based on naive (for instance, daily windows with a fixed number of days) or phenological approaches. Different machine learning methods for genomic prediction are implemented, including gradient boosted trees, random forests, stacked ensemble models, and multi-layer perceptrons. These prediction models can be evaluated via a collection of cross-validation schemes that mimic typical scenarios encountered by plant breeders working with MET experimental data in a user-friendly way. The package is fully open source and accessible on GitHub.

We introduce the R-package learnMET, developed as a flexible framework to enable a collection of analyses on multi-environment trial (MET) breeding data with machine learning-based models. learnMET allows the combination of genomic information with environmental data such as climate and/or soil characteristics. Notably, the package offers the possibility of incorporating weather data from field weather stations, or to retrieve global meteorological datasets from a NASA database. Daily weather data can be aggregated over specific periods of time based on naive (for instance, non-overlapping 10-day windows) or phenological approaches. Different machine learning methods for genomic prediction are implemented, including gradient boosted decision trees, random forests, stacked ensemble models, and multi-layer perceptrons. These prediction models can be evaluated via a collection of cross-validation schemes that mimic typical scenarios encountered by plant breeders working with MET experimental data in a user-friendly way. The package is published under a MIT license and accessible on GitHub.