Increasing global temperature has led to an interest in plasticity in the timing of annual events; however, little is known about the demographic consequences of changing phenology. Annual reproductive success varies significantly among individuals within a population, and some of that variation has to do with the number of broods attempted by reproducing adults. In birds, female age and the timing of reproduction are often predictors of multiple breeding. We hypothesize that double brooding rates may be affected by spring temperature and that the response may vary with female age. We used a long-term reproductive data set for a migratory songbird, the prothonotary warbler (Protonotaria citrea) to assess which factors influence (a) an individual female's probability of double brooding and (b) the annual variation in population-level double brooding rates. We found that older and earlier nesting birds are more likely to double brood, and that there is no evidence for senescence with regard to this trait such that the oldest females were most likely to double brood. Previous experience with double brooding (i.e., whether the female double brooded in the previous year) significantly increased the probability of doing so again. When assessing annual variation in the double brooding rate, we found an interaction between spring temperature and the proportion of older females in the population. Specifically, older females are more likely to double brood in years with warmer springs, but this relationship was not seen for younger females. Previous studies have shown that warmer temperatures lead to earlier and narrower peaks in resources and we hypothesize that these peaks are more available to older and earlier arriving females, enabling them to successfully raise more than one brood in a season. Understanding how different age classes respond to changing environmental conditions will be imperative to managing declining species.

One of the greatest challenges to informed conservation of migratory animals is elucidating spatiotemporal variation in distributions. Without such information, it is impossible to understand full-annual-cycle ecology and effectively implement conservation actions that address where and when populations are most limited. We deployed and recovered light-level geolocators (n = 34) at 6 breeding sites in North America across the breeding range of a declining long-distance migratory bird, the Prothonotary Warbler (Protonotaria citrea). We sought to determine migratory routes, stopover location and duration, and the location of overwintering grounds. We found that the species exhibits a large-scale, east‒west split in migratory routes and weak migratory connectivity across its range. Specifically, almost all individuals, regardless of breeding origin, overlapped in their estimated wintering location in northern Colombia, in an area 20% the size of the breeding range. Additionally, most of the individuals across all breeding locations concentrated in well-defined stopover locations in Central America while en route to Colombia. Although error inherent in light-level geolocation cannot be fully ruled out, surprisingly much of the estimated wintering area included inland areas even though the Prothonotary Warbler is considered a specialist on coastal mangroves in winter. Based on these results, conservation efforts directed at very specific nonbreeding geographical areas will potentially have benefits across most of the breeding population. Our findings highlight the importance of using modern technologies to validate assumptions about little-studied portions of a species’ annual cycle, and the need to distribute sampling across its range.

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Climate change is predicted to impact tropical mangrove forests due to decreased rainfall, sea‐level rise, and increased seasonality of flooding. Such changes are likely to influence habitat quality for migratory songbirds occupying mangrove wetlands during the tropical dry season. Overwintering habitat quality is known to be associated with fitness in migratory songbirds, yet studies have focused primarily on territorial species. Little is known about the ecology of nonterritorial species that may display more complex movement patterns within and among habitats of differing quality. In this study, we assess within‐season survival and movement at two spatio‐temporal scales of a nonterritorial overwintering bird, the prothonotary warbler (Protonotaria citrea), that depends on mangroves and tropical lowland forests. Specifically, we (a) estimated within‐patch survival and persistence over a six‐week period using radio‐tagged birds in central Panama and (b) modeled abundance and occupancy dynamics at survey points throughout eastern Panama and northern Colombia as the dry season progressed. We found that site persistence was highest in mangroves; however, the probability of survival did not differ among habitats. The probability of warbler occupancy increased with canopy cover, and wet habitats were least likely to experience local extinction as the dry season progressed. We also found that warbler abundance is highest in forests with the tallest canopies. This study is one of the first to demonstrate habitat‐dependent occupancy and movement in a nonterritorial overwintering migrant songbird, and our findings highlight the need to conserve intact, mature mangrove, and lowland forests.

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