Objectives To assess the proportion of patients lost to programme (died, lost to follow-up, transferred-out) between HIV diagnosis and start of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, and determine factors associated with loss to programme. Methods Systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched PubMed and EMBASE databases for studies in adults. Outcomes were the percentage of patients dying before starting ART, the percentage lost to follow-up, the percentage with a CD4 cell count, the distribution of first CD4 counts and the percentage of eligible patients starting ART. Data were combined using random-effects meta-analysis. Results 29 studies from sub-Saharan Africa including 148,912 patients were analysed. 6 studies covered the whole period from HIV diagnosis to ART start. Meta-analysis of these studies showed that of 100 patients with a positive HIV test, 72 (95% CI 60–84) had a CD4 cell count measured, 40 (95% CI 26–55) were eligible for ART and 25 (95% CI 13–37) started ART. There was substantial heterogeneity between studies (p<0.0001). Median CD4 cell count at presentation ranged from 154 cells/μl to 274 cells/μl. Patients eligible for ART were less likely to become lost to programme (25% versus 54%, p<0.0001) but eligible patients were more likely to die (11% versus 5%, p<0.0001) than ineligible patients. Loss to programme was higher in men, in patients with low CD4 cell counts and low socio-economic status, and in recent time periods. Conclusions Monitoring and care in the pre-ART time period needs improvement, with greater emphasis on patients not yet eligible for ART.

BackgroundSystematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies are frequently performed, but no widely accepted guidance is available at present. We performed a systematic scoping review of published methodological recommendations on how to systematically review and meta-analyse observational studies.MethodsWe searched online databases and websites and contacted experts in the field to locate potentially eligible articles. We included articles that provided any type of recommendation on how to conduct systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies. We extracted and summarised recommendations on pre-defined key items: protocol development, research question, search strategy, study eligibility, data extraction, dealing with different study designs, risk of bias assessment, publication bias, heterogeneity, statistical analysis. We summarised recommendations by key item, identifying areas of agreement and disagreement as well as areas where recommendations were missing or scarce.ResultsThe searches identified 2461 articles of which 93 were eligible. Many recommendations for reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies were transferred from guidance developed for reviews and meta-analyses of RCTs. Although there was substantial agreement in some methodological areas there was also considerable disagreement on how evidence synthesis of observational studies should be conducted. Conflicting recommendations were seen on topics such as the inclusion of different study designs in systematic reviews and meta-analyses, the use of quality scales to assess the risk of bias, and the choice of model (e.g. fixed vs. random effects) for meta-analysis.ConclusionThere is a need for sound methodological guidance on how to conduct systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies, which critically considers areas in which there are conflicting recommendations.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12874-018-0495-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Objectives To determine magnitude and reasons of loss to programme and poor antiretroviral prophylaxis coverage in prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods We searched PubMed and Embase databases for PMTCT studies in sub-Saharan Africa published between January 2002 and March 2012. Outcomes were the percentage of pregnant women (i) tested for HIV, (ii) initiating antiretroviral prophylaxis, (iii) having a CD4 cell count measured, and (iv) initiating antiretroviral combination therapy (cART) if eligible. In children outcomes were (v) early infant diagnosis for HIV, and (vi) cART initiation. We combined data using random-effects meta-analysis and identified predictors of uptake of interventions. Results Forty-four studies from 15 countries including 75,172 HIV-infected pregnant women were analyzed. HIV-testing uptake at antenatal care services was 94% (95% confidence intervals [CI] 92-95%) for opt-out and 58% (95% CI 40-75%) for opt-in testing. Coverage with any antiretroviral prophylaxis was 70% (95% CI 64-76%) and 62% (95% CI 50-73%) of pregnant women eligible for cART received treatment. Sixty-four percent (95% CI 48-81%) of HIV exposed infants had early diagnosis performed and 55% (95% CI 36-74%) were tested between 12 and 18 months. Uptake of PMTCT interventions was improved if cART was provided at the antenatal clinic and if the male partner was involved. Conclusions In sub-Saharan Africa, uptake of PMTCT interventions and early infant diagnosis is unsatisfactory. An integrated family-centered approach seems to improve retention.