Droughts are a persistent and costly hazard impacting human and environmental systems. As climate variability continues to increase and socioeconomic development influences the distribution of wealth and people, drought risk is expected to increase in many parts of the world. The unique characteristics of droughtsnamely their slow onset, large spatiotemporal extent, human-influenced propagation, delayed impacts and teleconnection potential-make it difficult to correctly assess drought impact and calculate risk. Further complicating this calculation is the capacity for humans to make adaptive decisions before, during, and after a drought event, which in turn alters expected impacts. In this sense, droughts are equally a social and hydroclimatic issue. Risk perception is one of the main factors driving adaptation decisions, yet most models neglect how humans view and respond to risk, and in particular how experiences influence decisions through time. In this overview, we describe a framework that extends the traditional risk modeling approach to include the two-way feedback between the transient adaptation decisions and drought exposure, vulnerability and hazard. We discuss how a sociohydrologic, agent-based modeling setup, focused on individual and collective actions, can simulate the adaptive behaviors of different stakeholders to examine how emergent actions might influence projected drought risk. We suggest such an approach can provide a test-bed for understanding adaptive behaviors in an increasingly drought-prone world and could allow for better prioritization of drought adaptation strategies; refined understanding of future scenarios; and a vehicle to drive planning and resilience building. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water Extremes Engineering Water > Planning Water Engineering Water > Methods K E Y W O R D S adaptation, agent-based modeling, behavior, drought, risk, sociohydrology

No abstract

The concurring forces of agricultural intensification and abandonment have been identified as some of the more prominent and polarizing drivers of landscape change in Europe. These transitions may induce deterioration in landscape functioning and character, particularly in cultural landscapes demonstrative of evolving human-environment dynamics having sustained multiple environmental benefits through time. Cultural and behavioral motives are significant root influences to such landscape transitions, yet efforts to address landscape degradation are often hampered by a failure to account for the heterogeneous decisionmaking nature of its agents of change and the inherent complexity of socio-ecological systems. Novel techniques are required to further disentangle responses to multi-level drivers and discuss alternative landscape development trajectories. Agent-based models constructed by means of participatory approaches present increasingly applied tools in this context. This study sought to capture and model the future perspectives emerging from presently occurring farming discourses in the region of Gera (Lesvos, Greece), characterized by persistent abandonment of its traditionally managed olive plantations. We constructed an agent-based model iteratively in collaboration with the local farming community and experts in landscape research. Empirical findings informed the model through the construction of a farmer typology, revealing a heavy reliance of the farming community upon sectorial profitability, prevalent cultural farming motives and emerging landscape initiatives. The model examined the de-coupled role of agricultural profitability and landscapes initiatives in shaping the behavior of land managers, mapping alternative landscape futures over a period of 25 years. Model results illustrate increased profitability alongside action by landscape initiatives alone can reverse abandonment trends within the simulated time frame. The hypothesized ability of landscape initiatives to maintain and promote a cultural drive amongst adhering farmers is crucial for securing behavioral transformations towards professionalism. This study confirmed agent-based modelling to be intuitively received by stakeholders who significantly contributed to model structure refinement and the rejection of a status quo scenario.

Multi-stakeholder perceptions of landscape changes are increasingly recognized as essential inputs to discussions on future landscape developments, particularly when addressing the future of European rural areas experiencing agricultural abandonment. This research presents a case exploration of abandonment of olive plantations in east Lesvos, Greece. We conducted two sets of semi-structured interviews to relate an exploration on local farmers' ability and willingness to maintain the plantations, to the results of a landscape preference survey undertaken with tourists. Three farmer types are identified following a cluster analysis based on attributes of individual ability and willingness to farm. Farmers belonging to the prevalent type revealed low ability and willingness and expect to further extensify their farms. The remaining two farmer types have higher willingness; they are motivated by cultural reasons, more frequently expressing a desire to maintain their land under family ownership, and partake in social cooperative initiatives promoting practices valorizing the olive plantations. We outline how these types interact with regional drivers of change, and partly also contribute to persistence of abandonment through constrained ability to farm. Abandonment does not align with current landscape preferences of tourists, who favor cultivated landscapes, elements of traditionality within built infrastructure and undertake nature-based activities. We discuss how high willingness to farm associated with professional and pluri-active forms of farming may however provide opportunities to maintain the cultivated landscape and synergize with (agri-)tourism demand. Our findings are comparable to those of other European studies, contributing to discussions on the future of its rural landscapes.

General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal ? Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.