Abstract. Snow avalanches pose a threat to settlements and infrastructure in alpine environments. Due to the catastrophic events in recent years, the public is more aware of this phenomenon. Alpine settlements have always been confronted with natural hazards, but changes in land use and in dealing with avalanche hazards lead to an altering perception of this threat. In this study, a multi-temporal risk assessment is presented for three avalanche tracks in the municipality of Galtür, Austria. Changes in avalanche risk as well as changes in the risk-influencing factors (process behaviour, values at risk (buildings) and vulnerability) between 1950 and 2000 are quantified. An additional focus is put on the interconnection between these factors and their influence on the resulting risk.The avalanche processes were calculated using different simulation models (SAMOS as well as ELBA+). For each avalanche track, different scenarios were calculated according to the development of mitigation measures. The focus of the study was on a multi-temporal risk assessment; consequently the used models could be replaced with other snow avalanche models providing the same functionalities. The monetary values of buildings were estimated using the volume of the buildings and average prices per cubic meter. The changing size of the buildings over time was inferred from construction plans. The vulnerability of the buildings is understood as a degree of loss to a given element within the area affected by natural hazards. A vulnerability function for different construction types of buildings that depends on avalanche pressure was used to assess the degree of loss. No general risk trend could be determined for the studied avalanche tracks. Due to the high complexity of the variCorrespondence to: M. Keiler (margreth.keiler@univie.ac.at) ations in risk, small changes of one of several influencing factors can cause considerable differences in the resulting risk. This multi-temporal approach leads to better understanding of the today's risk by identifying the main changes and the underlying processes. Furthermore, this knowledge can be implemented in strategies for sustainable development in Alpine settlements.
Cities account for approximately two-thirds of global primary energy consumption and have large heat and power demands. Combined heat and power (CHP) systems offer significant primary energy efficiency gains and emissions reductions, but they can have high upfront investment costs and create nuisance pollution within the urban environment. Urban planners therefore need to understand the tradeoffs between limitations on CHP plant size and the performance of the overall energy system. This paper uses a mixed-integer linear programming model to evaluate urban energy system designs for a range of city sizes and technology scenarios. The results suggest that the most cost-effective and energy-efficient scenarios require a mix of technology scales including CHP plants of appropriate size for the total urban demand. For the cities studied here (less than 200000 people), planning restrictions that prevent the use of CHP technologies could lead to total system cost penalties of 2% (but with significantly different cost structures) and energy-efficiency penalties of up to 24% when measured against a boiler-only business-as-usual case.
District energy systems have the potential to decrease the CO 2 emissions linked to energy services (heating, hot water, cooling and electricity), thanks to the implementation of large polygeneration energy conversion technologies, connected to a group of buildings over a network. The synthesis of district energy systems requires a large number of integer and continuous variables involved in non linear models, resulting in a mixed integer non linear programming problem (MINLP). A new method is being developed to design district energy systems, by decomposing the multi-objective optimization problem into two sub-problems: a master optimization problem and a slave optimization problem. In this paper, the method developed as well as the first results of the complete resolution procedure are presented.
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