BackgroundLeptospirosis is widespread in Mexico, yet the potential distribution and risk of the disease remain unknown.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe analysed morbidity and mortality according to age and gender based on three sources of data reported by the Ministry of Health and the National Institute of Geography and Statics of Mexico, for the decade 2000–2010. A total of 1,547 cases were reported in 27 states, the majority of which were registered during the rainy season, and the most affected age group was 25–44 years old. Although leptospirosis has been reported as an occupational disease of males, analysis of morbidity in Mexico showed no male preference. A total number of 198 deaths were registered in 21 states, mainly in urban settings. Mortality was higher in males (61.1%) as compared to females (38.9%), and the case fatality ratio was also increased in males. The overall case fatality ratio in Mexico was elevated (12.8%), as compared to other countries. We additionally determined the potential disease distribution by examining the spatial epidemiology combined with spatial modeling using ecological niche modeling techniques. We identified regions where leptospirosis could be present and created a potential distribution map using bioclimatic variables derived from temperature and precipitation. Our data show that the distribution of the cases was more related to temperature (75%) than to precipitation variables. Ecological niche modeling showed predictive areas that were widely distributed in central and southern Mexico, excluding areas characterized by extreme climates.Conclusions/SignificanceIn conclusion, an epidemiological surveillance of leptospirosis is recommended in Mexico, since 55.7% of the country has environmental conditions fulfilling the criteria that favor the presence of the disease.

RESUMENTaxus globosa es una gimnosperma que habita principalmente en los bosques templados de México y el norte de América Central, y que está considerada como amenazada por las agencias de conservación tanto mexicanas como internacionales. En México, una de las mayores amenazas para la mayoría de las especies de los bosques nublados es la pérdida de hábitat, la cual se propicia por la modificación de la cobertura vegetal por factores antropogénicos. Con base en 73 registros de herbario se obtuvo la distribución potencial de la especie mediante el algoritmo Maxent. Asimismo, a partir del modelo obtenido se analizó la modificación de la cobertura vegetal durante tres períodos (1976, 1996 y 2000) y su influencia en la distribución potencial de esta especie. Su distribución potencial fue evaluada en relación con el actual Sistema Nacional de Áreas Naturales Protegidas a nivel federal (ANPs) de México y las Regiones Terrestres Prioritarias para la Conservación (RTPs), con el fin de determinar el papel de estas áreas en su conservación y manejo. Los modelos de distribución potencial muestran que existe una reducción importante del área de distribución (hasta el 84 %) al existir un cambio de uso de suelo. La especie está mal representada en las ANPs, pues menos del 10 % de su área potencial se encuentra dentro de estas áreas de protección federal. Este tipo de análisis representa una herramienta importante en biogeografía y conservación, así como en otras áreas del quehacer biológico, debido a su habilidad predictiva. Nuestros resultados muestran la urgencia que existe de conservar algunos parches de bosques templados mexicanos (principalmente los bosques nublados) para garantizar la existencia de esta especie.Palabras clave: áreas naturales protegidas, distribución potencial, Maxent, romerillo. ABSTRACTTaxus globosa is a gymnosperm inhabiting Mexican and northern Central American temperate forests, and it has been considered as threatened by Mexican and international conservancy agencies. In Mexico, habitat loss is one of the main threats for most of the cloud forest species including this taxon, being human-induced land use change a key issue. We obtained the potential distribution of this species through Maxent algorithm based on 73 herbarium records. Also the modification of vegetation cover for three time periods (1976, 1996 y 2000) was analyzed upon the potential distribution of this species. The known and potential geographical distribution was evaluated in relation to the current Mexican National System of Natural Protected Areas at federal level (ANPs) and Mexican Priority Regions for Conservation (RTPs), in order to determine the role of these areas in its conservation and management. Potential distribution models show an important reduction (until 84 %) of the distribution area related with land use change. This species is scarcely represented in the ANPs, because less than 10 % of its potential distribution occurs within these areas of federal protection. This approach represents an important tool in bio...

Supplementary information. Species list considered in the analysis TINAMIFORMES TINAMIDAE Crypturellus occidentalis Crypturellus cinnamomeus ANSERIFORMES ANATIDAE Dendrocygna autumnalis Dendrocygna bicolor Cairina moschata Anas diazi Anas cyanoptera Nomonyx dominicus GALLIFORMES CRACIDAE Ortalis vetula Ortalis wagleri Ortalis poliocephala Ortalis leucogastra Penelope purpurascens Penelopina nigra Crax rubra ODONTOPHORIDAE Callipepla squamata Callipepla douglasii Callipepla californica Callipepla gambelii Philortyx fasciatus Colinus cristatus Colinus godmani Colinus graysoni Colinus pectoralis Colinus virginianus Colinus ridgwayi Colinus coyolcos Colinus nigrogularis Dactylortyx thoracicus Cyrtonyx sallei Cyrtonyx montezumae Cyrtonyx ocellatus PHASIANIDAE Meleagris ocellata PODICIPEDIFORMES PODICIPEDIDAE Tachybaptus dominicus CICONIIFORMES CICONIIDAE Jabiru mycteria PELECANIFORMES ARDEIDAE Botaurus pinnatus Tigrisoma mexicanum Ardea alba Egretta thula Egretta tricolor Butorides virescens Nyctanassa violacea Cochlearius zeledoni ACCIPITRIFORMES CATHARTIDAE Coragyps atratus Cathartes aura Cathartes burrovianus Sarcoramphus papa ACCIPITRIDAE Leptodon cayanensis Chondrohierax uncinatus Gampsonyx swaisonii Elanus leucurus Rostrhamus sociabilis Harpagus bidentatus Ictinia plumbea Busarellus nigricollis Accipiter chionogaster Accipiter striatus Accipiter bicolor Accipiter cooperii Geranospiza nigra Leucopternis albicollis Asturina plagiata Buteogallus anthracinus Buteogallus subtilis Buteogallus urubitinga Parabuteo unicinctus Harpyhaliaetus solitarius Buteo magnirostris Buteo gracilis Buteo brachyurus Buteo albicaudatus Buteo jamaicensis Spizastur melanoleucus Spizaetus tyrannus Spizaetus ornatus FALCONIFORMES FALCONIDAE Caracara cheriway Micrastur ruficollis Micrastur semitorquatus Herpetotheres cachinnans Falco tropicalis Falco rufigularis GRUIFORMES RALLIDAE

No abstract

No abstract