Diarrheal disease, still a major cause of childhood illness, is caused by numerous, diverse infectious microorganisms, which are differentially sensitive to environmental conditions. Enteropathogen‐specific impacts of climate remain underexplored. Results from 15 studies that diagnosed enteropathogens in 64,788 stool samples from 20,760 children in 19 countries were combined. Infection status for 10 common enteropathogens—adenovirus, astrovirus, norovirus, rotavirus, sapovirus, Campylobacter , ETEC, Shigella , Cryptosporidium and Giardia —was matched by date with hydrometeorological variables from a global Earth observation dataset—precipitation and runoff volume, humidity, soil moisture, solar radiation, air pressure, temperature, and wind speed. Models were fitted for each pathogen, accounting for lags, nonlinearity, confounders, and threshold effects. Different variables showed complex, non‐linear associations with infection risk varying in magnitude and direction depending on pathogen species. Rotavirus infection decreased markedly following increasing 7‐day average temperatures—a relative risk of 0.76 (95% confidence interval: 0.69–0.85) above 28°C—while ETEC risk increased by almost half, 1.43 (1.36–1.50), in the 20–35°C range. Risk for all pathogens was highest following soil moistures in the upper range. Humidity was associated with increases in bacterial infections and decreases in most viral infections. Several virus species' risk increased following lower‐than‐average rainfall, while rotavirus and ETEC increased with heavier runoff. Temperature, soil moisture, and humidity are particularly influential parameters across all enteropathogens, likely impacting pathogen survival outside the host. Precipitation and runoff have divergent associations with different enteric viruses. These effects may engender shifts in the relative burden of diarrhea‐causing agents as the global climate changes.
Background:Globally, diarrhea kills almost 1500 children daily. In diagnostics, molecular methods are replacing traditional assays. We aimed to investigate enteropathogens in children with and without diarrhea in Luanda, the capital of Angola.Methods:One hundred and ninety-four stool samples from 98 children with acute diarrhea and 96 children without diarrhea were investigated for 17 enteropathogens with multiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction.Results:The median age of children was 10.5 months. Enteropathogens, bacteria, viruses and parasites were detected in 91%, 78%, 50% and 25%, respectively. A positive finding was significantly (P = 0.003) more common in diarrhea when testing for all pathogens combined, for bacteria alone and for viruses alone. More than one pathogen was found more frequently in diarrhea than in non-diarrhea stool samples, in 87% and in 59% (P < 0.0001), respectively. The median number (interquartile range) of pathogens detected was 3 (2) versus 1.5 (2; P < 0.0001), respectively. When age was taken into account, diarrhea was found to be associated with enterotoxigenic and enteroaggregative Escherichia coli, Shigella, Campylobacter, rotavirus, sapovirus and Cryptosporidium.Conclusions:Multiplex polymerase chain reaction detected enteropathogens in almost all stool samples of children in Luanda, albeit this occurred more often in diarrhea. Children with diarrhea showed more mixed infections than children without diarrhea.
Background: Diarrheal disease remains a leading cause of childhood illness and mortality and Shigella is a major etiological contributor for which a vaccine may soon be available. This study aimed to model the spatiotemporal variation in pediatric Shigella infection and map its predicted prevalence across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods: Independent participant data on Shigella positivity in stool samples collected from children aged ≥59 months were sourced from multiple LMIC-based studies. Covariates included household- and subject-level factors ascertained by study investigators and environmental and hydrometeorological variables extracted from various data products at georeferenced child locations. Multivariate models were fitted, and prevalence predictions obtained by syndrome and age stratum. Findings: 20 studies from 23 countries contributed 66,563 sample results. Age, symptom status, and study design contributed most to model performance followed by temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, and soil moisture. Shigella probability exceeded 20% when both precipitation and soil moisture were above average and had a 43% peak in uncomplicated diarrhea cases at 33°C temperatures, above which it decreased. Improved sanitation and open defecation decreased Shigella odds by 19% and 18% respectively compared to unimproved sanitation. Interpretation: The distribution of Shigella is more sensitive to climatological factors like temperature than previously recognized. Conditions in much of sub-Saharan Africa are particularly propitious for Shigella transmission, though hotspots also occur in South and Central America, the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, and New Guinea. These findings can inform prioritization of populations for future vaccine trials and campaigns.
Background As part of the global Invasive Bacterial Vaccine-Preventable Diseases Surveillance Network, 12 African countries referred cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples to South Africa’s regional reference laboratory. We evaluated the utility of real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in detecting and serotyping/grouping Haemophilus influenzae, Neisseria meningitidis, and Streptococcus pneumoniae (HNS). Methods From 2008 to 2017, CSF samples collected from children <5 years old with suspected meningitis underwent routine microbiology testing in-country, and 11 680 samples were submitted for HNS PCR at the regional reference laboratory. Unconditional logistic regression, with adjustment for geographic location, was performed to identify factors associated with PCR positivity. Results The overall HNS PCR positivity rate for all countries was 10% (1195 of 11 626 samples). In samples with both PCR and culture results, HNS PCR positivity was 11% (744 of 6747 samples), and HNS culture positivity was 3% (207 of 6747). Molecular serotype/serogroup was assigned in 75% of PCR-positive specimens (762 of 1016). Compared with PCR-negative CSF samples, PCR-positive samples were more often turbid (adjusted odds ratio, 6.80; 95% confidence interval, 5.67–8.17) and xanthochromic (1.72; 1.29–2.28), had elevated white blood cell counts (6.13; 4.71–7.99) and high protein concentrations (5.80; 4.34–7.75), and were more often HNS culture positive (32.70; 23.18–46.12). Conclusion PCR increased detection of vaccine-preventable bacterial meningitis in countries where confirmation of suspected meningitis cases is impeded by limited culture capacity.
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