One of the most common issues for investors regarding markets nowadays is to what extent these markets are eicient as all of them aim to increase their gains and beat the market as much as possible. This competition among them will inevitably result in markets becoming eicient and, therefore, prices quickly adjusting to the new coming information. Eventually, investors will most probably receive only a sum that makes up for the risk they took and the time value of money they invested. This is where market eiciency, its theory and forms come into question. There have been many researches conducted assessing the eiciency of diferent markets located throughout the world. However, there are still a lot of gaps in research involving emerging economies which needs to be completed for the sake of investment decisions. Therefore, the purpose of this chapter is to is to show how information eiciency relates to the stock markets of emerging economies, how it implicates investors, analyze the stock prices of 24 emerging economies to look for their weak form eiciency, and to put forward a set of commonalities found in results of literature relating to emerging market information eiciency.
Türkiye'de doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki 1974-2016 yılları arasındaki zaman dilimi için zaman serisi analizleri yardımıyla incelenmiştir. Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (Foreign Direct Investment-FDI) ve ekonomik büyüme (Gross Domestic Product-GDP) verileri Amerikan Doları cinsinden "World Bank Data Bank" tan sağlanmış ve bu serilerin logaritmaları alınarak analize tabi tutulmuştur. Öncelikle serilerin durağanlığını test etmek için Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) ve Phillips Perron (PP) birim kök testleri kullanılmış ve serilerin birinci farklarında durağan oldukları belirlenmiştir. Aynı seviyede durağan olan doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ile ekonomik büyüme değişkenleri arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığını tespit etmek için Engle Granger Eşbütünleşme testi uygulanmış ve bu serilerin eşbütünleşik olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Uzun dönemli ilişki belirlendikten sonra hata düzeltme modeli kurulmuş ve geçen yıl dengedeki sapmanın bu dönem ne kadar düzeldiği hata terimlerinin katsayısıyla belirlenmiştir. Hata düzeltme terimi katsayısının istatistiksel olarak anlamlı çıkması ve negatif işaretli olması da dengeden sapmanın olması durumunda tekrar dengeye doğru hareketin olduğunu göstermiştir. Seriler arasındaki ilişkinin yönünü belirleyebilmek için de Granger Nedensellik analizi yapılmış olup nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmamıştır.
Market efficiency is of great importance to many investors, policy makers, as well as researchers. It provides them with information regarding the market and acts as a guide in their decision-making process. For this reason, there have been extensive amount of research done through the years. However, the World has witnessed several major events in the last couple of decades, which has been of great importance for financial markets, having both direct and indirect impacts. The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic can be the two most important events the World has experienced. Although past research shows that the impact of both events on the efficiency of the stock markets were looked at in separate studies, there is lack of studies involving both major events and analysing how the efficiency of the stock market is changing between these periods. The aim of this study is to analyse the weak-form efficiency of the Turkish stock market and how it has evolved over time. There are 4 different data sets used to observe the changes in market efficiency, with full sample ranging from February 1988 to September 2022. Monthly closing prices of the BIST100 Index are analysed using both the traditional linear Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test and 5 different non-linear unit root tests. Results show that different tests have different strengths in capturing the stationarity and due to the LNV test Turkish Stock Market was found not to be weak form efficient.
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