Often resource selection functions (RSFs) are developed by comparing resource attributes of used sites to unused or available ones. We present alternative approaches to the analysis of resource selection based on the utilization distribution (UD). Our objectives are to describe the rationale for estimation of RSFs based on UDs, offer advice about computing UDs and RSFs, and illustrate their use in resource selection studies. We discuss the 3 main factors that should be considered when using kernel UD‐based estimates of space use: selection of bandwidth values, sample size versus precision of estimates, and UD shape and complexity. We present 3 case studies that demonstrate use of UDs in resource selection modeling. The first example demonstrates the general case of RSF estimation that uses multiple regression adjusted for spatial autocorrelation to relate UD estimates (i.e., the probability density function) to resource attributes. A second example, involving Poisson regression with an offset term, is presented as an alternative for modeling the relative frequency, or probability of use, within defined habitat units. This procedure uses the relative frequency of locations within a habitat unit as a surrogate of the UD and requires relatively fewer user‐defined options in the modeling of resource selection. Last, we illustrate how the UD can also be used to enhance univariate resource selection analyses, such as compositional analysis, in cases where animals use their range nonrandomly. The UD helps overcome several common shortcomings of some other analytical techniques by treating the animal as the primary sampling unit, summarizing use in a continuous and probabilistic manner, and relying on the pattern of animal space use rather than using individual sampling points. However, several drawbacks are apparent when using the UD in resource selection analyses. Choice of UD estimator is important and sensitive to sample size and user‐defined options, such as bandwidth and software selection. Extensions to these procedures could consider behavioral‐based approaches and alternative techniques to estimate the UD directly.

Droughts are expected to become more frequent under global climate change. Avifauna depend on precipitation for hydration, cover, and food. While there are indications that avian communities respond negatively to drought, little is known about the response of birds with differing functional and behavioural traits, what time periods and indicators of drought are most relevant, or how response varies geographically at broad spatial scales. Our goals were thus to determine (1) how avian abundance and species richness are related to drought, (2) whether community variations are more related to vegetation vigour or precipitation deviations and at what time periods relationships were strongest, (3) how response varies among avian guilds, and (4) how response varies among ecoregions with different precipitation regimes. Using mixed effect models and 1989-2005 North American Breeding Bird Survey data over the central United States, we examined the response to 10 precipitation-and greennessbased metrics by abundance and species richness of the avian community overall, and of four behavioural guilds. Drought was associated with the most negative impacts on avifauna in the semiarid Great Plains, while positive responses were observed in montane areas. Our models predict that in the plains, Neotropical migrants respond the most negatively to extreme drought, decreasing by 13.2% and 6.0% in abundance and richness, while permanent resident abundance and richness increase by 11.5% and 3.6%, respectively in montane areas. In most cases, response of abundance was greater than richness and models based on precipitation metrics spanning 32-week time periods were more supported than those covering shorter time periods and those based on greenness. While drought is but one of myriad environmental variations birds encounter, our results indicate that drought is capable of imposing sizable shifts in abundance, richness, and composition on avian communities, an important implication of a more climatically variable future.

Abstract. Increasing surface temperatures and climatic variability associated with global climate change are expected to produce more frequent and intense heat waves and droughts in many parts of the world. Our goal was to elucidate the fundamental, but poorly understood, effects of these extreme weather events on avian communities across the conterminous United States. Specifically, we explored: (1) the effects of timing and duration of heat and drought events, (2) the effects of jointly occurring drought and heat waves relative to these events occurring in isolation, and (3) how effects vary among functional groups related to nest location and migratory habit, and among ecoregions with differing precipitation and temperature regimes. Using data from remote sensing, meteorological stations, and the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we used mixed effects models to quantify responses of overall and functional group abundance to heat waves and droughts (occurring alone or in concert) at two key periods in the annual cycle of birds: breeding and post-fledging. We also compared responses among species with different migratory and nesting characteristics, and among 17 ecoregions of the conterminous United States. We found large changes in avian abundances related to 100-year extreme weather events occurring in both breeding and post-fledging periods, but little support for an interaction among time periods. We also found that jointly-, rather than individually-occurring heat waves and droughts were both more common and more predictive of abundance changes. Declining abundance was the only significant response to post-fledging events, while responses to breeding period events were larger but could be positive or negative. Negative responses were especially frequent in the western U.S., and among ground-nesting birds and Neotropical migrants, with the largest single-season declines (36%) occurring among ground-nesting birds in the desert Southwest. These results indicate the importance of functional traits, timing, and geography in determining avian responses to weather extremes. Because dispersal to other regions appears to be an important avian response, it may be essential to maintain habitat refugia in a more climatically variable future.

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Heat waves are expected to become more frequent and severe as climate changes, with unknown consequences for biodiversity. We sought to identify ecologically-relevant broad-scale indicators of heat waves based on MODIS land surface temperature (LST) and interpolated air temperature data and assess their associations with avian community structure. Specifically, we asked which data source, time periods, and heat wave indices best predicted changes in avian abundance and species richness. Using mixed effects models, we analyzed associations between these indices and data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey in the central United States between 2000 and 2007 in four ecoregions and five migratory and nesting species groups. We then quantified avian responses to scenarios of severe, but commonly-occurring early, late, and summer-long heat waves. Indices based on MODIS LST data, rather than interpolated air temperatures, were more predictive of avian community structure. Avian communities were more related to 8-day LST exceedances (positive anomalies only); and were generally more sensitive to summer-long heat waves. Across the region, abundance, and to a lesser extent, species richness, declined following heat waves. Among the ecoregions, relationships were most consistently negative in the southern and montane ecoregions, but were positive in a more humid northern ecoregion. Among migratory groups, permanent resident species were the most sensitive, declining in abundance following a summer-long heat wave by 19% and 13% in the montane and southern ecoregions, respectively. Ground-nesting species, which declined in the south by 12% following a late summer heat wave, were more sensitive than avifauna overall. These results demonstrate the value of MODIS LST data for measuring ecologically-relevant heat waves across large regions. Ecologically, these findings highlight the importance of extreme events for avian biodiversity and the considerable variation in response to environmental change associated with different functional groups and geographic regions. The magnitude of the relationships between avian abundance and heat waves reported here raises concerns about the impacts of more frequent and severe heat waves in a warming climate.