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Background/aim Accurate assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients receiving entecavir (ETV)/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) is likely to play a pivotal role in post-treatment follow-up strategy. We aimed to develop a simple and reliable predictive model for HCC risk in these patients. Patients and methods A database of 1242 consecutive treatment-naive CHB patients who initially underwent ETV/TDF between February 2007 and January 2017 at four referral hospitals in South Korea was analyzed. The HCC risk model was constructed on the basis of a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model in the derivation dataset (n=944) and was validated using Harrell’s C-statistic in a validation dataset (n=298). Results The 3/5-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 3.9/6.5 and 4.2/11.6% in the derivation and the validation dataset, respectively (P=0.08). In the derivation dataset, we identified four factors associated with HCC, namely, age, albumin, sex, and liver cirrhosis. The AASL (age, albumin, sex, liver cirrhosis)-HCC scoring system was developed on the basis of these factors, and simplified to an integer scoring system. AASL-HCC scores were found to have high discriminating performance for the prediction of HCC development at 5 years in the derivation (C-statistics=0.802, 95% confidence interval: 0.716–0.888) and validation dataset (C-statistics=0.805, 95% confidence interval: 0.671–0.939). When AASL-HCC scores were classified as 5 or less, 6–19, and at least 20 (low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively), the 5-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 0, 4.2, and 17.6%, respectively, in the derivation dataset. Conclusions The AASL-HCC model was simple and reliable for HCC risk prediction in treatment-naive CHB patients receiving ETV/TDF, and is easily applicable in the clinical setting.

BackgroundAccumulating evidence indicates that components of the systemic inflammatory response, such as C-reactive protein (CRP) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), have been associated with prognosis of various cancers. We aimed to elucidate whether CRP and NLR could serve as potential surrogate markers for response and survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).MethodsThe study population consisted of 318 consecutive patients with HCC. CRP and NLR were measured at baseline with follow-up measurements.ResultsWith the mean follow-up of 13.9 months, the median survival time was 13.8 months. Child-Pugh class, tumor size > 5 cm, tumor multiplicity, presence of portal vein thrombosis, α-fetoprotein > 200 ng/mL, CRP > 6.3 mg/L and NLR > 2.3 were identified as independent factors for worse survival of HCC (all p < 0.05). Patients with elevated CRP (> 6.3 mg/L) and elevated NLR (> 2.3) had a significantly shorter overall survival than those with low CRP and low NLR (all p < 0.001). The combined use of CRP and NLR provided incremental prognostic information. With significant inter-correlations, levels of CRP and NLR escalated with aggravating Child-Pugh class from A to C or progressing tumor stage from I to IV. CRP and NLR on baseline and serial measurements were well predictive of treatment response (p < 0.001).ConclusionsCRP and NLR are independent indicators for survival in HCC patients, reflecting tumor burden and hepatic reserve. Their role in predicting tumor response and survival is more enhanced when used in combination. This study suggests that CRP and NLR are important prognostic biomarkers for HCC.

Background: There are no convincing data supporting the routine use of pre-emptive therapy against HBV reactivation in various loco-regional therapies for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study investigated the incidence, severity and risk factors of HBV reactivation during locoregional therapies. Methods: A total of 205 prospectively enrolled patients were classified in order of increasing intensity of locoregional therapies: local ablation therapy (LAT; 43 patients), transarterial chemotherapy using adriamycin (TAC-ADR; 93 patients) or combined epirubicin-cisplatin (TAC-EC; 26 patients), and combined chemo-radiotherapy (TAC-EC+RT; 43 patients). Results: During the follow-up, 62 (30.2%) patients developed HBV reactivation. Multivariate analysis identified HBV DNA levels >10 4 copies/ml (P=0.041) and treatment option (P=0.001) to be independent predictors of HBV reactivation. There was a significant trend for increasing risk of reactivation with increasing intensity of therapy, with hazard ratios of 1.0 for LAT, 2.45 for TAC-ADR, 4.19 for TAC-EC and 10.17 for TAC-EC+RT. The severity of reactivated disease was also increased with increasing treatment intensity (P-value for trend <0.05). Only one of the patients with low-level viraemia receiving LAT alone developed reactivation, whereas a substantial number of patients with high-level viraemia eventually developed reactivation. Conclusions: High-level viraemia and high-level treatment intensity are the major risk factors for HBV reactivation during loco-regional therapy. Trends are evident for the increased risk and severity of reactivation with the aggressiveness of treatment. Pre-emptive antiviral therapy should be recommended for all patients with high-level viraemia irrespective of treatment option, or those undergoing any intensive therapy.

Intrahepatic tumor status and hepatic reserve are among the significant predictors of survival in patients with HCC and extrahepatic metastases. This study indicates that even in patients with metastases from advanced HCC, therapeutic approaches to control intrahepatic tumors are important in improving patient survival.