ObjectivesWith body mass index (BMI) failing to distinguish the mass of fat from lean, several novel predicted equations for predicted fat mass (FM), predicted lean mass (LM) and predicted per cent fat (PF) were recently developed and validated. Our aim was to explore whether the three novel parameters could better predict diabetes mellitus (DM) than the commonly used obesity indicators, including BMI, waist circumference, hip circumference and waist-hip ratio.DesignA 15-year prospective cohort was used.SettingIt was a prospective cohort, consisting of a general Chinese population from 1992 to 2007.ParticipantsThis cohort enrolled 711 people. People suffering from DM at baseline (n=24) were excluded, and 687 non-diabetics with complete data were included to the analysis.Primary outcomeNew-onset DM.ResultsAfter the follow-up, 74 (48 men and 26 women) incidences of DM were documented. For men, the adjusted HRs were 1, 5.19 (p=0.003) and 7.67 (p<0.001) across predicted PF tertiles; 1, 2.86 (p=0.029) and 5.60 (p<0.001) across predicted FM tertiles; 1, 1.21 (p=0.646) and 2.27 (p=0.025) across predicted LM tertiles. Predicted FM performed better than other commonly used obesity indicators in discrimination with the highest Harrell’s C-statistic among all the body composition parameters. Whereas, for women, none of the three novel parameters was the independent predictor.ConclusionPredicted PF, predicted LM and predicted FM could independently predict the risk of DM for men, with predicted FM performing better in discrimination than other commonly used obesity indicators. For women, larger samples were further needed.

Background Albumin to fibrinogen ratio (AFR) has emerged as a useful indicator for adverse outcomes in several diseases. However, whether the AFR could be a new useful indicator to predict mortality in HCM patients remains to be evaluated. The study investigated the predictive value of the AFR for HCM-related death in adult HCM patients. Methods A total of 404 HCM patients were retrospectively enrolled. Patients were divided into two groups based on the median of baseline AFR. The association between AFR and HCM-related death was analyzed. Results During a median follow-up duration of 4.75 years, 45 patients (11.1%) occurred in HCM-related death. The incidence of HCM-related death was significantly higher in the low AFR group (Log-rank p < 0.001). With the high AFR group as reference, the fully adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of HCM-related death were 3.15 for the low AFR group (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.16–0.64, p = 0.001). No significant interactions between AFR and other variables were observed in subgroup analysis. Sensitivity analyses in patients with normal albumin and fibrinogen have showed similar results. Conclusion AFR is an independent prognostic factor for HCM-related death in adult HCM patients.