Theory suggests that eligible voters should be more likely to cast ballots when election margins are close. Empirical evidence, however, is mixed. Operational definitions of key concepts such as turnout and election closeness are often inconsistent and limited in application to two-party systems. This paper provides a more generalized test of the turnout-competition link in electoral districts. Data are 1993 and 1997 constituency-level election results for the Canadian House of Commons. Canada provides an excellent case for comparison because it has single-member districts, plurality elections, both national and regional parties, and multiparty competition throughout the nation. Several alternative measures for "turnout" and "closeness" are evaluated in the context of multiparty elections. A new index of competitiveness is developed. Multicandidate measures of closeness are related to higher levels of voter participation in Canadian federal elections.Are citizens more likely to vote if an election is close? Empirical research on this question has produced mixed results. Some studies confirm a relationship between closeness and voter turnout; others discount any relationship. A fundamental problem has been the construction of quantitative measures for turnout and closeness. One bias in the literature is toward two-party systems. Operational definitions for closeness, in particular, do not translate well to multiparty systems. This article offers a new method for computing closeness in a multiparty context. We test for effects of this and other variables in the context of the 1993 and 1997 Canadian federal elections. Downs (1957) proposed a theoretical link between the closeness of a given election and voter turnout. In the Downsian model, potential voters decide to participate in an election when the personal costs of voting are outweighed by the benefits accrued from the act of voting. Critics of this expected utility model argue that the chance of casting a vote that decides the outcome of the election is essentially zero. Since voting in and of itself is costly (the time and effort to
Does a lag effect exist in the integration of technology into state legislative campaigns? Have state legislative campaigns followed the example of congressional campaigns and become users of voter files, web sites, and other forms of electronic voter communication? Using a survey of state legislative candidates in two states from the 2006 election cycle, the author probes candidates on their use of 18 technological elements. Legislative professionalism, party affiliation, professionalism of a campaign, and money raised were not significantly related to technology use in campaigns. And technology is not in widespread use for elections to state houses. Campaign success is strongly related to the use of online fund-raising, suggesting an incentive for candidates in the future to become more aggressive users of technology.
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