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Investor decision-making requires an absence of bias and appropriate levels of risk-taking. In this study we investigate whether investors are prone to take risks, both in terms of how they rate their risk propensity and their behavior in choosing between options with different risk levels, and whether they display overconfidence and underdog bias. We also investigate the relationships among underdog bias, overconfidence and risk propensity. The results indicate overconfidence levels similar to that in other populations and do not reveal underdog bias or high levels of risk propensity. We found support for a negative predictive relationship between underdog bias and overconfidence. Further findings reveal that the highest self-ratings appeared for those with most investment experience, and females displayed higher underdog bias than men. The findings hold implications for the development of self-perception in investors.

Purpose -The theoretical value of scenario-planning as a strategic tool is well recognized in literature. The research objective is to explore the corporate reasoning of formal and informal usage (or non-usage) of scenario-planning in strategic decision-making. Design/Methodology/Approach -An overview of the relevant literature on scenario-planning as a strategic decision-making tool in the context of complexity and uncertainty is presented, in combination with 15 case studies on executives in the South African context. Findings -The findings are based on a study in the emerging market context. From the case studies reported it is evident that industry, organizational and leadership related factors influence the effective use or non-use of scenario-planning. Research limitations/implications -Empirical findings are reported, contributing to an assessment framework to revisit the usage of formal and informal scenario-planning in strategic decision-making. Further research to determine which supportive tools and technologies should be used for scenario-planning across multiple contexts is needed. Practical implications -The study expands upon previous insights into the formal and informal usage (or non-usage) of scenario-planning in strategic decision-making based on an emerging market context. Originality/value -This study contributes to understanding the value of scenario-planning in complex contexts that require strategic adaptability, and offers a hands-on toolkit and shortlist of assessment criteria to conceptualize the organizational reasoning and scholarly framing of formal, informal or non-scenario planning in strategic decision-making.

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