No abstract

We present both theoretical and numerical analyses of a cellular automaton version of a slider-block model or threshold model that includes long-range interactions. Theoretically we develop a coarse-grained description in the mean-field (infinite range) limit and discuss the relevance of the metastable state, limit of stability (spinodal), and nucleation to the phenomenology of the model. We also simulate the model and confirm the relevance of the theory for systems with long- but finite-range interactions. Results of particular interest include the existence of Gutenberg-Richter-like scaling consistent with that found on real earthquake fault systems, the association of large events with nucleation near the spinodal, and the result that such systems can be described, in the mean-field limit, with techniques appropriate to systems in equilibrium.

No abstract

Numerical simulations have shown that certain driven nonlinear systems can be characterized by mean-field statistical properties often associated with ergodic dynamics J.B. Rundle, Phys. Rev. E 60, 1359 (1999); D.Egolf, Science 287, 101 (2000)]. These driven mean-field threshold systems feature long-range interactions and can be treated as equilibrium-like systems with dynamics that are statistically stationary over long time intervals. Recently the equilibrium property of ergodicity was identified in an earthquake fault system, a natural driven threshold system, by means of the Thirumalai-Mountain (TM) fluctuation metric developed in the study of diffusive systems [K.F. Tiampo, J.B. Rundle, W. Klein, J.S. Sá Martins, and C. D. Ferguson, Phys. Rev. Lett. 91, 238501 (2003)]. In this work we analyze the seismicity of three naturally-occurring earthquake faults networks from a variety of tectonic settings in an attempt to investigate the range of applicability of effective ergodicity, using the TM metric and other, related statistics. Results suggest that, once variations in the catalog data resulting from technical and network issues are accounted for, all of these natural earthquake systems display stationary periods of 2 metastable equilibrium and effective ergodicity that are disrupted by large events. We conclude that a constant rate of events is an important prerequisite for these periods of punctuated ergodicity, and that while the level of temporal variability in the spatial statistics is the controlling factor in the ergodic behavior of seismic networks, no single statistic is sufficient to ensure quantification of ergodicity. Specifically, we demonstrate that stationarity, while a necessary condition, is not sufficient to ensure ergodicity in fault systems.

No abstract