Abstract. The intensification of aridity due to anthropogenic climate change in the southwestern U.S. is likely to have a large impact on the growth and survival of plant species that may already be vulnerable to water stress. To make accurate predictions of plant responses to climate change, it is essential to determine the long-term dynamics of plant species associated with past climate conditions. Here we show how the plant species and functional types across a wide range of environmental conditions in Colorado Plateau national parks have changed with climate variability over the last twenty years. During this time, regional mean annual temperature increased by 0.188C per year from 1989-1995, 0.068C per year from 1995-2003, declined by 0.148C from [2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008], and there was high interannual variability in precipitation. Non-metric multidimensional scaling of plant species at long-term monitoring sites indicated five distinct plant communities. In many of the communities, canopy cover of perennial plants was sensitive to mean annual temperature occurring in the previous year, whereas canopy cover of annual plants responded to cool season precipitation. In the perennial grasslands, there was an overall decline of C 3 perennial grasses, no change of C 4 perennial grasses, and an increase of shrubs with increasing temperature. In the shrublands, shrubs generally showed no change or slightly increased with increasing temperature. However, certain shrub species declined where soil and physical characteristics of a site limited water availability. In the higher elevation woodlands, Juniperus osteosperma and shrub canopy cover increased with increasing temperature, while Pinus edulis at the highest elevation sites was unresponsive to interannual temperature variability. These results from well-protected national parks highlight the importance of temperature to plant responses in a water-limited region and suggest that projected increases in aridity are likely to promote grass loss and shrub expansion on the Colorado Plateau.

There is a continual need for invasive plant science to develop approaches for cost-effectively benefiting native over nonnative species in dynamic management and biophysical contexts, including within predominantly nonnative plant landscapes containing only small patches of native plants. Our objective was to test the effectiveness of a minimal-input strategy for enlarging native species patches within a nonnative plant matrix. In Pecos National Historical Park, New Mexico, USA, we identified 40 native perennial grass patches within a matrix of the nonnative annual forb kochia [Bassia scoparia (L.) A.J. Scott]. We mechanically cut B. scoparia in a 2-m-wide ring surrounding the perimeters of half the native grass patches (with the other half as uncut controls) and measured change in native grass patch size (relative to pretreatment) for 3 yr. Native grass patches around which B. scoparia was cut grew quickly the first posttreatment year and by the third year had increased in size four times more than control patches. Treated native grass patches expanded by an average of 25 m2, from 4 m2 in October 2015 before treatment to 29 m2 in October 2018. The experiment occurred during a dry period, conditions that should favor B. scoparia and contraction of the native grasses, suggesting that the observed increase in native grasses occurred despite suboptimal climatic conditions. Strategically treating around native patches to enlarge them over time showed promise as a minimal-input technique for increasing the proportion of the landscape dominated by native plants.

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