The Analysis of DeterminantsInvestigation of reactions to disaster are mainly motivated by the need for information relevant to the prediction and control of behavior of populations exposed to the extreme stresses to be anticipated in war-time. Knowledge in this field is, obviously, of the highest importance. There are, however, very serious difficulties in obtaining valid and reliable information.1 The studies reported in this paper are the product of a research team whose composition varied over time. Substantial contributions to the final analysis were made by

Many groups and agencies have a vital need of accurate informa tion on how people behave during disasters. This article presents information which seems to have particular pertinence for disaster preparedness, control, and amelioration. Among the subjects discussed are the problem of how to make disaster warnings effective, behavior during disasters and in the subsequent emer gency period, the problem of people's flocking into the area, the need and diffi culties of co-ordination and control of rescue and relief activities, the traumatic effects of disaster on its victims, and the sources of possible conflicts between rescue and relief agencies and their clients.—Ed.

BackgroundThe forces which affect homelessness are complex and often interactive in nature. Social forces such as addictions, family breakdown, and mental illness are compounded by structural forces such as lack of available low-cost housing, poor economic conditions, and insufficient mental health services. Together these factors impact levels of homelessness through their dynamic relations. Historic models, which are static in nature, have only been marginally successful in capturing these relationships.MethodsFuzzy Logic (FL) and fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) are particularly suited to the modeling of complex social problems, such as homelessness, due to their inherent ability to model intricate, interactive systems often described in vague conceptual terms and then organize them into a specific, concrete form (i.e., the FCM) which can be readily understood by social scientists and others. Using FL we converted information, taken from recently published, peer reviewed articles, for a select group of factors related to homelessness and then calculated the strength of influence (weights) for pairs of factors. We then used these weighted relationships in a FCM to test the effects of increasing or decreasing individual or groups of factors. Results of these trials were explainable according to current empirical knowledge related to homelessness.ResultsPrior graphic maps of homelessness have been of limited use due to the dynamic nature of the concepts related to homelessness. The FCM technique captures greater degrees of dynamism and complexity than static models, allowing relevant concepts to be manipulated and interacted. This, in turn, allows for a much more realistic picture of homelessness. Through network analysis of the FCM we determined that Education exerts the greatest force in the model and hence impacts the dynamism and complexity of a social problem such as homelessness.ConclusionsThe FCM built to model the complex social system of homelessness reasonably represented reality for the sample scenarios created. This confirmed that the model worked and that a search of peer reviewed, academic literature is a reasonable foundation upon which to build the model. Further, it was determined that the direction and strengths of relationships between concepts included in this map are a reasonable approximation of their action in reality. However, dynamic models are not without their limitations and must be acknowledged as inherently exploratory.

Abstract. Spatial cluster analysis is a uniquely interdisciplinary endeavour, and so it is important to communicate and disseminate ideas, innovations, best practices and challenges across practitioners, applied epidemiology researchers and spatial statisticians. In this research we conducted a scoping review to systematically search peer-reviewed journal databases for research that has employed spatial cluster analysis methods on individual-level, address location, or x and y coordinate derived data. To illustrate the thematic issues raised by our results, methods were tested using a dataset where known clusters existed. Point pattern methods, spatial clustering and cluster detection tests, and a locally weighted spatial regression model were most commonly used for individual-level, address location data (n = 29). The spatial scan statistic was the most popular method for address location data (n = 19). Six themes were identified relating to the application of spatial cluster analysis methods and subsequent analyses, which we recommend researchers to consider; exploratory analysis, visualization, spatial resolution, aetiology, scale and spatial weights. It is our intention that researchers seeking direction for using spatial cluster analysis methods, consider the caveats and strengths of each approach, but also explore the numerous other methods available for this type of analysis. Applied spatial epidemiology researchers and practitioners should give special consideration to applying multiple tests to a dataset. Future research should focus on developing frameworks for selecting appropriate methods and the corresponding spatial weighting schemes.