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Global climate models project significant changes to air temperature and precipitation regimes in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere. These meteorological changes will have associated impacts to surface and shallow subsurface thermal regimes, which are of interest to practitioners and researchers in many disciplines of the natural sciences. For example, groundwater temperature is critical for providing and sustaining suitable thermal habitat for cold-water salmonids. To investigate the surface and subsurface thermal effects of atmospheric climate change, seven downscaled climate scenarios (2046–2065) for a small forested catchment in New Brunswick, Canada were employed to drive the surface energy and moisture flux model, ForHyM2. Results from these seven simulations indicate that climate change-induced increases in air temperature and changes in snow cover could increase summer surface temperatures (range −0.30 to +3.49 °C, mean +1.49 °C), but decrease winter surface temperatures (range −1.12 to +0.08 °C, mean −0.53 °C) compared to the reference period simulation. Thus, changes to the timing and duration of snow cover will likely decouple changes in mean annual air temperature (mean +2.11 °C) and mean annual ground surface temperature (mean +1.06 °C).

Projected surface temperature data were then used to drive an empirical surface to groundwater temperature transfer function developed from measured surface and groundwater temperature. Results from the empirical transfer function suggest that changes in groundwater temperature will exhibit seasonality at shallow depths (1.5 m), but be seasonally constant and approximately equivalent to the change in the mean annual surface temperature at deeper depths (8.75 m). The simulated increases in future groundwater temperature suggest that the thermal sensitivity of baseflow-dominated streams to decadal climate change may be greater than previous studies have indicated

An algorithm (Weather Reader) was developed and used to analyze daily weather records from all existing Canadian and American weather stations of eastern North America (in excess of 2100 stations), from 1930 through 2000. Specifically, the Weather Reader was used to compile daily minimum, mean, and maximum air temperatures for weather stations with at least 30 years of data, and was used to calculate accumulated degree days for winter thaw–freeze events relevant to yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britt.) from beginning to end. A thaw–freeze event relevant to yellow birch was considered to take place when (i) the station daily maximum temperature reached or exceeded +4°C after being below freezing for at least 2 months of the winter, (ii) sufficient growing degree days accumulated (>50 growing degree days) to cause the affected yellow birch trees to prematurely deharden, and (iii) the daily minimum temperature dropped below −4°C causing roots and/or shoots of dehardened trees to experience freeze‐induced injury and possibly dieback. The threshold temperature of +4°C represents the daily temperature above which biological activity occurs in yellow birch. The station growing degree day summaries were subsequently spatially interpolated with the Kriging function in GS+™ and mapped in ArcView™ GIS in order to display the geographic extent of the most severe thaw–freeze events. The ArcView™ maps were then compared with the extent of historically observed yellow birch decline. It was found that the years 1936, 1944, and 1945 were particularly uncharacteristic in terms of region‐wide winter thaw–freeze extremes, and also in terms of observed birch decline events during 1930–1960. An overlay of suspected accumulated birch decline based on thaw–freeze mapping and observed decline maps prepared by Braathe (1995), Auclair (1987), and Auclair et al. (1997) for 1930–1960 demonstrated similar geographic patterns. The thaw–freeze projection for 1930–1960 was shown to coincide with 83% of the birch decline map appearing in Braathe (1995) and 55% of the geographic range of yellow birch in eastern North America. Thaw–freeze mapping was also applied to two significant events in 1981. Greatest impact was recorded to occur mostly in southern Quebec and Ontario, and several American Great Lake States, specifically in northern Michigan and New York, where the greatest growing degree day accumulation prior to refreeze in late February (February 28th) was projected to have occurred; and in southern Quebec, most of Atlantic Canada, and Maine, prior to a late spring frost in mid‐April (April 17).

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