Low levels of education are a powerful predictor of anti-immigration
sentiment. However, there is little consensus on the interpretation
of this correlation: is it causal or is it an artifact of selection
bias? We address this question by exploiting six major compulsory
schooling reforms in five Western European countries—Denmark,
France, Great Britain, the Netherlands, and Sweden—that have
recently experienced politically influential anti-immigration
movements. On average, we find that compelling students to remain in
secondary school for at least an additional year decreases
anti-immigration attitudes later in life. Instrumental variable
estimates demonstrate that, among such compliers, an additional year
of secondary schooling substantially reduces the probability of
opposing immigration, believing that immigration erodes a country’s
quality of life, and feeling close to far-right anti-immigration
parties. These results suggest that rising post-war educational
attainment has mitigated the rise of anti-immigration movements. We
discuss the mechanisms and implications for future research
examining anti-immigration sentiment.
Do voters update their attitudes toward economic issues in line with their material self-interest? The consensus among students of public opinion is that material self-interest plays a very limited role and that competing non-material factors, such as partisanship or ideological predispositions, do most of the heavy lifting. This paper moves beyond comparing the role of material and non-material factors. Instead, we examine how these factors combine to shape policy preferences. Specifically, we propose a friendly amendment to Zaller’s influential model according to which attitudinal change results from the interaction between changes in elite messaging on the one hand and individual political predispositions on the other. In Zaller’s model, partisanship and ideological predispositions help explain why some resist and others embrace new elite messaging. We hypothesize that material self-interest also conditions the effect of elite messaging. Using British individual-level panel data collected over more than a decade, we show that material hardship predicts who, among left-wing voters, resist new right-wing partisan cues. Our results highlights the incremental impact of material self-interest on economic attitudes.
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