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To promote the low-carbonization of rural logistics, the embeddedness among low-carbon rural logistics potential (LRLP), low-carbon rural logistics strength (LRLS) and environmental regulations (ERs) was clarified by using the analytical paradigm of impetus–basis–target. According to the embeddedness, an evolutionary framework of the low-carbon rural logistics system was constructed to analyze the evolutionary process of this system. Then, a three-dimensional evolutionary equation of the low-carbon rural logistics system was proposed based on the evolutionary framework, and the evolutionary threshold criterion of the system was obtained through the stability analysis of the evolutionary equation. The interaction mechanism within the evolutionary process of the low-carbon rural logistics system in China was verified through data simulation in MATLAB. The results show that in an environment with lower ERs, the effect of simply relying on LRLS to promote the sustainable development of low-carbon rural logistics is not obvious, and the overall effect is not significant. In the long term, under the influence of different external control variables, LRLP plays a pivotal role in evolution, and improving LRLP is conducive to promoting the sustainable development process of low-carbon rural logistics. Keywords: environmental regulations; low-carbon rural logistics potential; low-carbon rural logistics strength; the evolutionary framework; three-dimensional evolutionary equation

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