North China has undergone a severe drying trend since the 1950s, but whether this trend is natural variability or anthropogenic change remains unknown due to the short data length. This study extends the analysis of dry-wet changes in north China to 1900-2010 on the basis of self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) data. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition method is used to detect multidecadal variability. A transition from significant wetting to significant drying is detected around 1959/60. Approximately 70% of the drying trend during 1960-90 originates from 50-70-yr multidecadal variability related to Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) phase changes. The PDSI in north China is significantly negatively correlated with the PDO index, particularly at the 50-70-yr time scale, and is also stable during 1900-2010. Composite differences between two positive PDO phases (1922-45 and 1977-2002) and one negative PDO phase (1946-76) for summer exhibit an anomalous Pacific-Japan/East Asian-Pacific patternlike teleconnection, which may develop locally in response to the PDO-associated warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical IndoPacific Ocean and meridionally extends from the tropical western Pacific to north China along the East Asian coast. North China is dominated by an anomalous high pressure system at mid-low levels and an anticyclone at 850 hPa, which are favorable for dry conditions. In addition, a weakened land-sea thermal contrast in East Asia from a negative to a positive PDO phase also plays a role in the dry conditions in north China by weakening the East Asian summer monsoon.
This study examines the temporal variations and spatial distributions of annual precipitation over Central Asia during the periods of 1901–2013, 1951–2013, and 1979–2013 using the latest version of Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) full data reanalysis version 7 (GPCC V7) data set. The linear trend and multiperiods of the precipitation over the entire region and plain and mountainous area separately are analysed by linear least square method and ensemble empirical mode decomposition method. An overall increasing trend [0.66 mm (10 years)−1] is found for the entire region during 1901–2013, which is smaller than that of 1951–2013. The regional annual precipitation exhibits multi‐decadal variations, with a sharp decline during 1901–1944, followed by an increase until 1980s, and a fluctuation thereafter. During 1979–2013, the mountainous area shows a greater increasing trend than the entire region. Furthermore, the regional annual precipitation has exhibited high‐frequency variations with 3‐year and 6‐year quasiperiods and a low‐frequency variation with 28‐year quasiperiods. In terms of the spatial distribution, increasing trend in the annual precipitation is found in Xinjiang and decreasing trends appear over the five countries of Central Asia during 1951–2013. Empirical orthogonal function results show that the mountainous area is the large variability centre of the annual precipitation. The dominant mode of interannual variability in Central Asia annual precipitation is related to El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, which explains about 17% of the interannual variance during 1951–2013. The results of this study describe the long‐term variation in the annual precipitation over Central Asia as well as its relationship with some key climate indices in great detail, which will benefit the understanding and the prediction of the climate variations in this region.
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