Ice-rich permafrost in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), China, is becoming susceptible to thermokarst landforms, and the most dramatic among these terrain-altering landforms is retrogressive thaw slump (RTS). Concurrently, RTS development can in turn affect the eco-environment, and especially soil erosion and carbon emission, during their evolution. However, there are still a lack of quantitative methods and comprehensive studies on the deformation and volumetric change in RTS. The purpose of this study is to quantitatively assess the RTS evolution through a novel and feasible simulation framework of the GPU-based discrete element method (DEM) coupled with the finite difference method (FDM). Additionally, the simulation results were calibrated using the time series observation results from September 2021 to August 2022, using the combined methods of terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The results reveal that, over this time, thaw slump mobilized a total volume of 1335 m3 and approximately 1050 m3 moved to a displaced area. Additionally, the estimated soil erosion was about 211 m3. Meanwhile, the corresponding maximum ground subsidence and headwall retrogression were 1.9 m and 3.2 m, respectively. We also found that the amount of mass wasting in RTS development is highly related to the ground ice content. When the volumetric ice content exceeds 10%, there will be obvious mass wasting in the thaw slump development area. Furthermore, this work proposed that the coupled DEM-FDM method and field survey method of TLS-UAV can provide an effective pathway to simulate thaw-induced slope failure problems and complement the research limitations of small-scale RTSs using remote sensing methods. The results are meaningful for assessing the eco-environmental impacts on the QTP.

Thermokarst terrain is developing at an accelerating pace in the ice‐rich permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), China, and the most dramatic of  these terrain‐altering thermokarsts is retrogressive thaw slump (RTS). The freeze–thaw erosion (FTE) impacts are sharply increasing on the Plateau due to RTS, especially as a result of  the migration of fine sediments in cold climates, these impacts are still not quantified due to the limitation of hydro‐thermal‐mass transport laws in RTS development. Moreover, it is difficult to assess the impact of RTS on the ecology and environment, especially on soil erosion. This study developed a heat–water‐mass transport coupled model of a RTS in the Beiluhe River Region on the QTP, considering the actual topography, water‐ice phase change, latent heat, and surface heat exchange layer. Based on the observed data of ground temperature, unfrozen water content, and heat flux, the coupled model herein is practicable for presenting the geotemperature regime and groundwater flow in the RTS area, thereby quantifying the ice‐rich permafrost thaw and mass wasting. The results presented indicate that: (1) the seepage velocity of the superficial zone (0–1.5 m depth) is two orders of magnitude higher than that of the permafrost table; (2) the mean ice‐rich permafrost thaw volume was 13.4 m2 from 2016 to 2021; and (3) the cumulative mass transport volume was 22 m2 from July 2020 to September 2021. In addition, the relation between the FTE (shown as the migration of sediments) and the amount of ground ice ablation can be fitted by an exponential equation. This work proposes a reliable method for quantifying the effect of FTE and is helpful to assess the eco‐environmental impacts of RTS.

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