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[1] We reconstructed paleoclimate patterns from oxygen and carbon isotope records from the fossil estuarine benthic foraminifera Elphidium and Mg/Ca ratios from the ostracode Loxoconcha from sediment cores from Chesapeake Bay to examine the Holocene evolution of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-type climate variability. Precipitation-driven river discharge and regional temperature variability are the primary influences on Chesapeake Bay salinity and water temperature, respectively. We first calibrated modern d 18O water to salinity and applied this relationship to calculate trends in paleosalinity from the d 18 O foram , correcting for changes in water temperature estimated from ostracode Mg/Ca ratios. The results indicate a much drier early Holocene in which mean paleosalinity was $28 ppt in the northern bay, falling $25% to $20 ppt during the late Holocene. Early Holocene Mg/Ca-derived temperatures varied in a relatively narrow range of 13°to 16°C with a mean temperature of 14.2°C and excursions above 16°C; the late Holocene was on average cooler (mean temperature of 12.8°C). In addition to the large contrast between early and late Holocene regional climate conditions, multidecadal (20-40 years) salinity and temperature variability is an inherent part of the region's climate during both the early and late Holocene, including the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age. These patterns are similar to those observed during the twentieth century caused by NAO-related processes. Comparison of the midlatitude Chesapeake Bay salinity record with tropical climate records of Intertropical Convergence Zone fluctuations inferred from the Cariaco Basin titanium record suggests an anticorrelation between precipitation in the two regions at both millennial and centennial timescales.

We analyzed decadal and interannual climate variability in South Florida since 1880 using geochemical and faunal paleosalinity indicators from isotopically dated sediment cores at Russell Bank in Florida Bay (FB). Using the relative abundance of 2 ostracode species and the Mg/Ca ratios in Loxoconcha matagordensis shells to reconstruct paleosalinity, we found evidence for cyclic oscillations in the salinity of central FB. During this time salinity fluctuated from as low as ~18 parts per thousand (ppt) to as high as ~57 ppt. Time series analyses suggest, in addition to a 5.6 yr Mg/Ca based salinity periodicity, there are 3 other modes of variability in paleosalinity indicators: 6-7, 8-9, and 13-14 yr periods which occur in all paleo-proxies. To search for factors that might cause salinity to vary in FB, we compared the Russell Bank paleosalinity record to South Florida winter rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the winter Pacific North American (PNA) index, and a surrogate for the PNA in the winter season, the Central North Pacific (CNP) index. SOI and PNA/CNP appear to be associated with South Florida winter precipitation. Time series analyses of SOI and winter rainfall for the period 1910-1999 suggest ~5, 6-7, 8-9 and 13-14 yr cycles. The 6-7 yr and 13-14 yr cycles correspond to those observed in the faunal and geochemical time series from Russell Bank. The main periods of the CNP index are 5-6 and 13-15 yr, which are similar to those observed in FB paleosalinity. Cross-spectral analyses show that winter rainfall and salinity are coherent at 5.6 yr with a salinity lag of ~1.6 mo. These results suggest that regional rainfall variability influences FB salinity over interannual and decadal timescales and that much of this variability may have its origin in climate variability in the Pacific Ocean/atmosphere system. KEY WORDS: Paleoclimate · Florida Bay · Salinity · Shell geochemistry · ENSO · Pacific North American indexResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher Clim Res 19: 233-245, 2002 els that simulate decadal patterns. For example, some model output and observational data suggest that causes of decadal variability occurring approximately every 20 yr reside in complex Pacific Oceanatmosphere interactions between tropical and midlatitude regions (Latif & Barnett 1994, Meehl et al. 1998, Barnett et al. 1999. Climate variability in the Pacific region associated with a global mid-to upper tropospheric disturbance was called the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern by Wallace & Gutzler (1981). More recently, the term Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been applied to low-frequency oceanatmospheric variability originating in the Pacific region (Barnett et al. 1999). Similarly, surface oceanatmosphere interaction in the North Atlantic Ocean, called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (Rogers & van Loon 1979, Rogers 1984, is a dominant mode of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic region, and also ...

Long-term chronologies of precipitation can provide a baseline against which twentieth-century trends in rainfall can be evaluated in terms of natural variability and anthropogenic influence. However, there are relatively few methods to quantitatively reconstruct palaeoprecipitation and river discharge compared with proxies of other climatic factors, such as temperature. We developed autoregressive and least squares statistical models relating Chesapeake Bay salinity to river discharge and regional precipitation records. Salinity in northern and central parts of the modern Chesapeake Bay is influenced largely by seasonal, interannual and decadal variations in Susquehanna River discharge, which in turn are controlled by regional precipitation patterns. A power regressive discharge model and linear precipitation model exhibit well-defined decadal variations in peak discharge and precipitation. The utility of the models was tested by estimating Holocene palaeoprecipitation and Susquehanna River palaeodischarge, as indicated by isotopically derived palaeosalinity reconstructions from Chesapeake Bay sediment cores. Model results indicate that the early-mid Holocene (7055-5900 yr BP) was drier than the late Holocene (1500 yr BP-present), the 'Mediaeval Warm Period' (MWP) (1200-600 yr BP) was drier than the 'Little Ice Age' (LIA) (500-100 yr BP), and the twentieth century experienced extremes in precipitation possibly associated with changes in ocean-atmosphere teleconnections.

Studies of the seasonal ecology and shell chemistry of the ostracode Loxoconcha matagordensis and related species of Loxoconcha from regions off eastern North America reveal that shell size and trace elemental (Mg/Ca ratio) composition are useful in paleothermometry using fossil populations. Seasonal sampling of populations from Chesapeake Bay, augmented by samples from Florida Bay, indicate that shell size is inversely proportional to water temperature and that Mg/Ca ratios are positively correlated with the water temperature in which the adult carapace was secreted. Microprobe analyses of sectioned valves reveal intra-shell variability in Mg/Ca ratios but this does not strongly influence the utility of whole shell Mg/Ca analyses for paleoclimate application. Published by Elsevier B.V.