Grazing is a major land use in Australia’s rangelands. The ‘safe’ livestock carrying capacity (LCC) required to maintain resource condition is strongly dependent on climate. We reviewed: the approaches for quantifying LCC; current trends in climate and their effect on components of the grazing system; implications of the ‘best estimates’ of climate change projections for LCC; the agreement and disagreement between the current trends and projections; and the adequacy of current models of forage production in simulating the impact of climate change. We report the results of a sensitivity study of climate change impacts on forage production across the rangelands, and we discuss the more general issues facing grazing enterprises associated with climate change, such as ‘known uncertainties’ and adaptation responses (e.g. use of climate risk assessment). We found that the method of quantifying LCC from a combination of estimates (simulations) of long-term (>30 years) forage production and successful grazier experience has been well tested across northern Australian rangelands with different climatic regions. This methodology provides a sound base for the assessment of climate change impacts, even though there are many identified gaps in knowledge. The evaluation of current trends indicated substantial differences in the trends of annual rainfall (and simulated forage production) across Australian rangelands with general increases in most of western Australian rangelands (including northern regions of the Northern Territory) and decreases in eastern Australian rangelands and south-western Western Australia. Some of the projected changes in rainfall and temperature appear small compared with year-to-year variability. Nevertheless, the impacts on rangeland production systems are expected to be important in terms of required managerial and enterprise adaptations. Some important aspects of climate systems science remain unresolved, and we suggest that a risk-averse approach to rangeland management, based on the ‘best estimate’ projections, in combination with appropriate responses to short-term (1–5 years) climate variability, would reduce the risk of resource degradation. Climate change projections – including changes in rainfall, temperature, carbon dioxide and other climatic variables – if realised, are likely to affect forage and animal production, and ecosystem functioning. The major known uncertainties in quantifying climate change impacts are: (i) carbon dioxide effects on forage production, quality, nutrient cycling and competition between life forms (e.g. grass, shrubs and trees); and (ii) the future role of woody plants including effects of fire, climatic extremes and management for carbon storage. In a simple example of simulating climate change impacts on forage production, we found that increased temperature (3°C) was likely to result in a decrease in forage production for most rangeland locations (e.g. –21% calculated as an unweighted average across 90 locations). The increase in temperature exacerbated or reduced the effects of a 10% decrease/increase in rainfall respectively (–33% or –9%). Estimates of the beneficial effects of increased CO2 (from 350 to 650 ppm) on forage production and water use efficiency indicated enhanced forage production (+26%). The increase was approximately equivalent to the decline in forage production associated with a 3°C temperature increase. The large magnitude of these opposing effects emphasised the importance of the uncertainties in quantifying the impacts of these components of climate change. We anticipate decreases in LCC given that the ‘best estimate’ of climate change across the rangelands is for a decline (or little change) in rainfall and an increase in temperature. As a consequence, we suggest that public policy have regard for: the implications for livestock enterprises, regional communities, potential resource damage, animal welfare and human distress. However, the capability to quantify these warnings is yet to be developed and this important task remains as a challenge for rangeland and climate systems science.

Buffel grass [Pennisetum ciliare (L.) Link] has been widely introduced in the Australian rangelands as a consequence of its value for productive grazing, but tends to competitively establish in non-target areas such as remnant vegetation. In this study, we examined the influence landscape-scale and local-scale variables had upon the distribution of buffel grass in remnant poplar box (Eucalyptus populnea F.Muell.) dominant woodland fragments in the Brigalow Bioregion, Queensland. Buffel grass and variables thought to influence its distribution in the region were measured at 60 sites, which were selected based on the amount of native woodland retained in the landscape and patch size. An information-theoretic modelling approach and hierarchical partitioning revealed that the most influential variable was the percent of retained vegetation within a 1-km spatial extent. From this, we identified a critical threshold of ~30% retained vegetation in the landscape, above which the model predicted buffel grass was not likely to occur in a woodland fragment. Other explanatory variables in the model were site based, and included litter cover and long-term rainfall. Given the paucity of information on the effect of buffel grass upon biodiversity values, we undertook exploratory analyses to determine whether buffel grass cover influenced the distribution of grass, forb and reptile species. We detected some trends; hierarchical partitioning revealed that buffel grass cover was the most important explanatory variable describing habitat preferences of four reptile species. However, establishing causal links – particularly between native grass and forb species and buffel grass – was problematic owing to possible confounding with grazing pressure. We conclude with a set of management recommendations aimed at reducing the spread of buffel grass into remnant woodlands.

Cultivation and cropping of soils results in a decline in soil organic carbon and soil nitrogen, and can lead to reduced crop yields. The CENTURY model was used to simulate the effects of continuous cultivation and cereal cropping on total soil organic matter (C and N), carbon pools, nitrogen mineralisation, and crop yield from 6 locations in southern Queensland. The model was calibrated for each replicate from the original datasets, allowing comparisons for each replicate rather than site averages. The CENTURY model was able to satisfactorily predict the impact of long-term cultivation and cereal cropping on total organic carbon, but was less successful in simulating the different fractions and nitrogen mineralisation. The model firstly over-predicted the initial (pre-cropping) soil carbon and nitrogen concentration of the sites. To account for the unique shrinking and swelling characteristics of the Vertosol soils, the default annual decomposition rates of the slow and passive carbon pools were doubled, and then the model accurately predicted initial conditions. The ability of the model to predict carbon pool fractions varied, demonstrating the difficulty inherent in predicting the size of these conceptual pools. The strength of the model lies in the ability to closely predict the starting soil organic matter conditions, and the ability to predict the impact of clearing, cultivation, fertiliser application, and continuous cropping on total soil carbon and nitrogen.

New or expanded agricultural industries in northern Australia require efficient and reliable supply chains and transport to domestic and international markets. A major challenge in the north is long transport distances of over 1000km between production and markets, along a sparse rural road/rail network that is largely unsealed and disrupted by seasonal flooding. To provide a comprehensive view of transport logistics costs and benefits due to infrastructure investments and regulatory changes in agriculture supply chains, the Australian Government commissioned CSIRO to develop the Transport Network Strategic Investment Tool (TraNSIT). TraNSIT optimises transport routes for up to hundreds of thousands of enterprises and millions of vehicle trips between farms and their markets, providing modelled input into operational and investment decisions. As part of a major Australian Government initiative, TraNSIT was used to directly inform the A$100 million 2016 Beef Roads Program targeting transport infrastructure investments across northern Australia. It was used to evaluate the transport savings for 60 road upgrade submissions, where the total construction cost exceeded A$3 billion. This paper highlights the innovations and experiences of using TraNSIT to inform the Beef Roads Program.