In risk evaluation, the effect of mixtures of environmental chemicals on a common adverse outcome is of interest. However, due to the high dimensionality and inherent correlations among chemicals that occur together, the traditional methods (e.g. ordinary or logistic regression) suffer from collinearity and variance inflation, and shrinkage methods have limitations in selecting among correlated components. We propose a weighted quantile sum (WQS) approach to estimating a body burden index, which identifies “bad actors” in a set of highly correlated environmental chemicals. We evaluate and characterize the accuracy of WQS regression in variable selection through extensive simulation studies through sensitivity and specificity (i.e., ability of the WQS method to select the bad actors correctly and not incorrect ones). We demonstrate the improvement in accuracy this method provides over traditional ordinary regression and shrinkage methods (lasso, adaptive lasso, and elastic net). Results from simulations demonstrate that WQS regression is accurate under some environmentally relevant conditions, but its accuracy decreases for a fixed correlation pattern as the association with a response variable diminishes. Nonzero weights (i.e., weights exceeding a selection threshold parameter) may be used to identify bad actors; however, components within a cluster of highly correlated active components tend to have lower weights, with the sum of their weights representative of the set.

Fetuses with congenital heart disease (CHD) have circulatory abnormalities that may compromise cerebral oxygen delivery. We believe that some CHD fetuses with decreased cerebral oxygen supply have autoregulation of blood flow that enhances cerebral perfusion (brain sparing). We hypothesize that cerebral autoregulation occurs in CHD fetuses, and the degree of autoregulation is dependent on the specific CHD and correlates with intrauterine head circumferences. CHD fetuses were compared to normal fetuses. Data included cardiac diagnosis, cerebral and umbilical artery Doppler, head circumference, weight, and gestational age. The cerebral-to-placental resistance ratio (CPR) was assessed as a measure of cerebral autoregulation. CPR = cerebral/umbilical resistance index (RI) and RI = systolic-diastolic/systolic velocity (normal CPR > 1). CPR > 1 was found in 95% of normal vs 44% of CHD fetuses. The incidence of CPR < 1 was greatest in hypoplastic left or right heart fetuses. Compared to normal, cerebral RI was decreased in CHD fetuses. The CPR vs gestational age relationship, and the relationship among weight, head circumference, and CPR differed across normal and CHD fetuses. Fetuses > 2 kg with CHD and a CPR < 1 had smaller head circumferences than normal. Brain sparing occurs in CHD fetuses. Fetuses with single ventricular physiology are most affected. Inadequate cerebral flow in CHD fetuses, despite autoregulation, may alter brain growth.

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SummaryHumans are exposed to a large number of environmental chemicals: Some of these may be toxic, and many others have unknown or poorly characterized health effects. There is intense interest in determining the impact of exposure to environmental chemical mixtures on human health. As the study of mixtures continues to evolve in the field of environmental epidemiology, it is imperative that we understand the methodologic challenges of this research and the types of questions we can address using epidemiological data. In this article, we summarize some of the unique challenges in exposure assessment, statistical methods, and methodology that epidemiologists face in addressing chemical mixtures. We propose three broad questions that epidemiological studies can address: a) What are the potential health impacts of individual chemical agents? b) What is the interaction among agents? And c) what are the health effects of cumulative exposure to multiple agents? As the field of mixtures research grows, we can use these three questions as a basis for defining our research questions and for developing methods that will help us better understand the effect of chemical exposures on human disease and well-being.

Endocrine disruption from environmental contaminants has been linked to a broad spectrum of adverse outcomes. One concern about endocrine-disrupting xenobiotics is the potential for additive or synergistic (i.e., greater-than-additive) effects of mixtures. A short-term dosing model to examine the effects of environmental mixtures on thyroid homeostasis has been developed. Prototypic thyroid-disrupting chemicals (TDCs) such as dioxins, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and poly-brominated diphenyl ethers have been shown to alter thyroid hormone homeostasis in this model primarily by up-regulating hepatic catabolism of thyroid hormones via at least two mechanisms. Our present effort tested the hypothesis that a mixture of TDCs will affect serum total thyroxine (T4) concentrations in a dose-additive manner. Young female Long-Evans rats were dosed via gavage with 18 different polyyhalogenated aromatic hydrocarbons [2 dioxins, 4 dibenzofurans, and 12 PCBs, including dioxin-like and non-dioxin-like PCBs] for 4 consecutive days. Serum total T4 was measured via radioimmunoassay in samples collected 24 hr after the last dose. Extensive dose–response functions (based on seven to nine doses per chemical) were determined for individual chemicals. A mixture was custom synthesized with the ratio of chemicals based on environmental concentrations. Serial dilutions of this mixture ranged from approximately background levels to 100-fold greater than background human daily intakes. Six serial dilutions of the mixture were tested in the same 4-day assay. Doses of individual chemicals that were associated with a 30% TH decrease from control (ED30), as well as predicted mixture outcomes were calculated using a flexible single-chemical-required method applicable to chemicals with differing dose thresholds and maximum-effect asymptotes. The single-chemical data were modeled without and with the mixture data to determine, respectively, the expected mixture response (the additivity model) and the experimentally observed mixture response (the empirical model). A likelihood-ratio test revealed statistically significant departure from dose additivity. There was no deviation from additivity at the lowest doses of the mixture, but there was a greater-than-additive effect at the three highest mixtures doses. At high doses the additivity model underpredicted the empirical effects by 2- to 3-fold. These are the first results to suggest dose-dependent additivity and synergism in TDCs that may act via different mechanisms in a complex mixture. The results imply that cumulative risk approaches be considered when assessing the risk of exposure to chemical mixtures that contain TDCs.