Forecasting the geomagnetic effects of solar storms, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is currently severely limited by our inability to predict the magnetic field configuration in the CME magnetic core and by observational effects of a single spacecraft trajectory through its 3‐D structure. CME magnetic flux ropes can lead to continuous forcing of the energy input to the Earth's magnetosphere by strong and steady southward‐pointing magnetic fields. Here we demonstrate in a proof‐of‐concept way a new approach to predict the southward field B z in a CME flux rope. It combines a novel semiempirical model of CME flux rope magnetic fields (Three‐Dimensional Coronal ROpe Ejection) with solar observations and in situ magnetic field data from along the Sun‐Earth line. These are provided here by the MESSENGER spacecraft for a CME event on 9–13 July 2013. Three‐Dimensional Coronal ROpe Ejection is the first such model that contains the interplanetary propagation and evolution of a 3‐D flux rope magnetic field, the observation by a synthetic spacecraft, and the prediction of an index of geomagnetic activity. A counterclockwise rotation of the left‐handed erupting CME flux rope in the corona of 30° and a deflection angle of 20° is evident from comparison of solar and coronal observations. The calculated Dst matches reasonably the observed Dst minimum and its time evolution, but the results are highly sensitive to the CME axis orientation. We discuss assumptions and limitations of the method prototype and its potential for real time space weather forecasting and heliospheric data interpretation.

Seven different models are applied to the same problem of simulating the Sun's coronal magnetic field during the solar eclipse on 2015 March 20. All of the models are non-potential, allowing for free magnetic energy, but the associated electric currents are developed in significantly different ways. This is not a direct comparison of the coronal modelling techniques, in that the different models also use different photospheric boundary conditions, reflecting the range of approaches currently used in the community. Despite the significant differences, the results show broad agreement in the overall magnetic topology. Among those models with significant volume currents in much of the corona, there is general agreement that the ratio of total to potential magnetic energy should be approximately 1.4. However, there are significant differences in the electric current distributions; while static extrapolations are best able to reproduce active regions, they are unable to recover sheared magnetic fields in filament channels using currently available vector magnetogram data. By contrast, time-evolving simulations can recover the filament channel fields at the expense of not matching the observed vector magnetic fields within active regions. We suggest that, at present, the best approach may be a hybrid model using static extrapolations but with additional energization informed by simplified evolution models. This is demonstrated by one of the models.

Coronal holes are regions on the Sun's surface that map the foot-prints of open magnetic field lines. We have developed an automated routine to detect and track boundaries of long-lived coronal holes using full-disk EUV images obtained by SoHO:EIT, SDO:AIA, and STEREO:EUVI. We measure coronal hole areas and magnetic flux in these holes, and compare the measurements with calculations by the PFSS model. It is shown that, from 1996 through 2010, the total area of coronal holes measured with EIT images varies between 5% and 17% of the total solar surface area, and the total unsigned open flux varies between 2-5×10 22 Mx. The solar cycle dependence of these measurements are similar to the PFSS results, but the model yields larger hole areas and greater open flux than observed by EIT. The AIA/EUVI measurements from 2010-2013 show coronal hole area coverage of 5-10% of the total surface area, with significant contribution from low latitudes, which is under-represented by EIT. AIA/EUVI have measured much enhanced open magnetic flux in the range of 2-4×10 22 Mx, which is about twice the flux measured by EIT, and matches with the PFSS calculated open flux, with discrepancies in the location and strength of coronal holes. A detailed comparison between the three measurements (by EIT, AIA-EUVI, and PFSS) indicates that coronal holes in low latitudes contribute significantly to the total open magnetic flux. These low-latitude coronal holes are not well measured with either the He I 10830 line in previous studies, or EIT EUV images; neither are they well captured by the static PFSS model. The enhanced observations from AIA/EUVI allow a more accurate measure of these low latitude coronal holes, and their contribution to open magnetic flux.

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