The forests of northern Wisconsin, a defining feature of the region's landscape, are expected to undergo numerous changes in response to the changing climate. This document provides a collection of resources designed to help forest managers incorporate climate change considerations into management and devise adaptation tactics. It was developed in northern Wisconsin as part of the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project and contains information from assessments, partnership efforts, workshops, and collaborative work between scientists and managers. The four interrelated chapters include: (1) a description of the overarching Climate Change Response Framework, a landscape-scale conservation approach also being expanded to other landscapes; (2) a "menu" of adaptation strategies and approaches that are directly relevant to forests in northern Wisconsin; (3) a workbook process to help incorporate climate change considerations into forest management planning and to assist land managers in developing ground-level climate adaptation tactics for forest ecosystems; and (4) two illustrations that provide examples of how these resources can be used in real-world situations. The ideas, tools, and resources presented in the different chapters are intended to inform and support the existing decisionmaking processes of multiple organizations with diverse management goals.

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The forests in northern Michigan will be affected directly and indirectly by changing climate during the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the eastern Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and described a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple vegetation impact models, which provided a range of potential vegetative responses to climate. Finally, we brought these results before a multidisciplinary panel of scientists and land managers familiar with Michigan forests to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process. The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major forest trends and stressors currently threatening forests in the region. Observed trends in climate over the past century reveal that precipitation increased in the area, particularly in summer and fall, and that daily maximum temperatures increased, particularly in winter. Projected climate trends for the next 100 years using downscaled global climate model data indicate a potential increase in mean annual temperature of 2.2 to 8.1 °F for the assessment area. Projections for precipitation indicate an increase in winter and spring precipitation, and summer and fall precipitation projections vary by scenario. We identified potential impacts on forests by incorporating these climate projections into three forest impact models (Tree Atlas, LANDIS-II, and PnET-CN). Model projections suggest that northern boreal species such as black spruce and paper birch may fare worse under future conditions, but other species such as American elm and white oak may benefit from projected changes in climate. Published literature on climate impacts related to wildfire, invasive species, and diseases also contributed to the overall determination of climate change vulnerability. We assessed vulnerability for nine forest communities in the assessment area, which were a combination of U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis program forest types and Michigan Natural Features Inventory natural communities. The basic assessment was conducted through a formal elicitation process of 27 science and management experts from across the state, who considered vulnerability both in terms of potential impacts on a system and in terms of the system's adaptive capacity. Upland spruce-fir, jack pine, lowland conifers, and red pine-white pine forest communities were determined to be the most vulnerable. Barrens and lowland/riparian hardwood communities were perceived as less vulnerable to projected changes in climate. These projected changes in climate and the associated impacts and vulnerabilities will have important implications for economically valuable timber species, forest-dependent wildlife and plants, recreation, and long-range p...