1. Eradications of invasive species are usually expensive and difficult to conduct.Knowing when to declare an eradication successful requires distinguishing between failed detection of the target species due to imperfect sensitivity of the detection method and true species absence. This is difficult because the sensitivities of many detection methods are unknown.2. Environmental DNA (eDNA) methods can be used to detect species by analysing DNA present in environmental samples. eDNA has been promoted as a particularly sensitive and cost-effective way to detect species at low densities and, importantly, the sensitivity of eDNA surveys can be quantified. Nevertheless, the effort and costs involved in detecting species at extremely low densities, such as required during eradication, have not been previously calculated.3. We evaluated the sensitivity of eDNA surveys in detecting the invasive European carp, Cyprinus carpio, in two lakes in Tasmania, Australia, one in which carp have been eradicated and a second in which carp are currently being eradicated. We determined the sampling effort and associated cost required to detect the species at very low density in these lakes.

A mark-recapture study based on the Petersen method was implemented in 1998 to estimate the abundance of the invasive common carp, Cyprinus carpio L., in Lake Crescent, Tasmania. Multiple gear types were employed to minimise capture bias, with multiple capture and recapture events providing an opportunity to compute and compare Petersen and Schnabel estimates. A single Petersen estimate on recapture data and two Schnabel estimates -one each on mark (forward-Schnabel estimate) and recapture (reverse-Schnabel estimate) data -were conducted. An independent long-term double tag study facilitated estimation of the annual natural mortality. Subsequent fish-down of the population suggests that, in all likelihood, the carp have been eradicated from the lake, providing an unprecedented opportunity to verify the forward population estimates carried out in 1998. Results suggest that all three estimates were close to the true population size, with the reverse-Schnabel estimate being the most accurate and within 1% of the true population in this relatively large lake ($2365 ha). Greater accuracy of the reverse-Schnabel approach can be attributed to either minimised fish behavioural (i.e. gear susceptibility or avoidance) or computational bias associated with the forwardSchnabel and Petersen approaches, respectively. While the original estimates served as a guide in eradication of carp from the lake, the ultimate validation provides a reliable framework for abundance estimation of this invasive fish in relatively large water bodies elsewhere.

Common carp (Cyprinus carpio, L. 1758) are the most abundant pest fish species in Australia, detrimental to ecosystem integrity and values, and in need of suitable management solutions. In January 1995, this destructive pest was discovered in two large, connected Tasmanian lakes—Lakes Crescent (23 km2) and Sorell (54 km2). After an initial assessment, carp were immediately contained to these waters using screens to prevent their escape down-stream, followed by swift legislation to enforce closure of the lakes to the public. Assessment and evaluation of carp numbers occurred throughout the eradication program, with effort focused on Lake Crescent. Beginning with undirected removal, techniques progressively evolved to more sophisticated targeted removal with assistance from biotelemetry, in conjunction with gill netting and electro-fishing. Real-time population estimates and in situ observations resulted in a detailed cumulative understanding of carp population dynamics, behaviour and seasonal habitat choice. This allowed strategic deployment of fences to block access to marshes, and the installation of steel traps within the fences. These gears specifically prevented spawning opportunities, while concurrently capturing mature fish. Following 12 years of adaptive and integrated effort, 7797 carp (fry, juvenile and adult) were captured from Lake Crescent, with the last carp being caught in December 2007. The subsequent 14 years of monitoring has not resulted in the capture of any carp, confirming the successful eradication of carp from Lake Crescent. These management practices have been successfully replicated in the larger Lake Sorell, where 41,499 carp (fry, juvenile and adult) have been removed. It is now estimated that there are few, if any carp remaining. Collectively, the techniques and strategies described here were reliable, and can be applied as a model to control or eradicate pest populations of carp in freshwater lakes elsewhere.

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