Among the most striking aspects of the movement of many animal groups are their sudden coherent changes in direction. Recent observations of locusts and starlings have shown that this directional switching is an intrinsic property of their motion. Similar direction switches are seen in self-propelled particle and other models of group motion. Comprehending the factors that determine such switches is key to understanding the movement of these groups. Here, we adopt a coarse-grained approach to the study of directional switching in a self-propelled particle model assuming an underlying one-dimensional Fokker-Planck equation for the mean velocity of the particles. We continue with this assumption in analyzing experimental data on locusts and use a similar systematic Fokker-Planck equation coefficient estimation approach to extract the relevant information for the assumed Fokker-Planck equation underlying that experimental data. In the experiment itself the motion of groups of 5 to 100 locust nymphs was investigated in a homogeneous laboratory environment, helping us to establish the intrinsic dynamics of locust marching bands. We determine the mean time between direction switches as a function of group density for the experimental data and the self-propelled particle model. This systematic approach allows us to identify key differences between the experimental data and the model, revealing that individual locusts appear to increase the randomness of their movements in response to a loss of alignment by the group. We give a quantitative description of how locusts use noise to maintain swarm alignment. We discuss further how properties of individual animal behavior, inferred by using the Fokker-Planck equation coefficient estimation approach, can be implemented in the selfpropelled particle model to replicate qualitatively the group level dynamics seen in the experimental data.collective behavior | locusts | density-dependent switching | coarse-graining | swarming W hile recent years have seen an explosion in the number of simulation models of moving animal groups, there is little detailed comparison between these models and experimental data (1, 2). The models usually produce motion that "looks like" that of a swarm of locusts, a school of fish, or a flock of birds, but the similarities are difficult to quantify (3). Furthermore, the simulation models themselves are often difficult to understand from a mathematical viewpoint since, by their nature, they resist simple mean-field descriptions. These complications make it difficult to use models to predict, for example, the rate at which groups change direction of travel or how spatial patterns evolve through time (4, 5). We are left with a multitude of models, all of which seem to relate to the available experimental data, but none of which provide clear predictive power.One approach to the problem of linking experimental data to model behavior is the detailed study of the local interactions between animals. This approach has yielded better understanding of the rules ...

Cell migration and growth are essential components of the development of multicellular organisms. The role of various cues in directing cell migration is widespread, in particular, the role of signals in the environment in the control of cell motility and directional guidance. In many cases, especially in developmental biology, growth of the domain also plays a large role in the distribution of cells and, in some cases, cell or signal distribution may actually drive domain growth. There is an almost ubiquitous use of partial differential equations (PDEs) for modelling the time evolution of cellular density and environmental cues. In the last 20 years, a lot of attention has been devoted to connecting macroscopic PDEs with more detailed microscopic models of cellular motility, including models of directional sensing and signal transduction pathways. However, domain growth is largely omitted in the literature. In this paper, individual-based models describing cell movement and domain growth are studied, and correspondence with a macroscopic-level PDE describing the evolution of cell density is demonstrated. The individual-based models are formulated in terms of random walkers on a lattice. Domain growth provides an extra mathematical challenge by making the lattice size variable over time. A reaction-diffusion master equation formalism is generalised to the case of growing lattices and used in the derivation of the macroscopic PDEs.

The stochastic simulation algorithm commonly known as Gillespie’s algorithm (originally derived for modelling well-mixed systems of chemical reactions) is now used ubiquitously in the modelling of biological processes in which stochastic effects play an important role. In well-mixed scenarios at the sub-cellular level it is often reasonable to assume that times between successive reaction/interaction events are exponentially distributed and can be appropriately modelled as a Markov process and hence simulated by the Gillespie algorithm. However, Gillespie’s algorithm is routinely applied to model biological systems for which it was never intended. In particular, processes in which cell proliferation is important (e.g. embryonic development, cancer formation) should not be simulated naively using the Gillespie algorithm since the history-dependent nature of the cell cycle breaks the Markov process. The variance in experimentally measured cell cycle times is far less than in an exponential cell cycle time distribution with the same mean.Here we suggest a method of modelling the cell cycle that restores the memoryless property to the system and is therefore consistent with simulation via the Gillespie algorithm. By breaking the cell cycle into a number of independent exponentially distributed stages, we can restore the Markov property at the same time as more accurately approximating the appropriate cell cycle time distributions. The consequences of our revised mathematical model are explored analytically as far as possible. We demonstrate the importance of employing the correct cell cycle time distribution by recapitulating the results from two models incorporating cellular proliferation (one spatial and one non-spatial) and demonstrating that changing the cell cycle time distribution makes quantitative and qualitative differences to the outcome of the models. Our adaptation will allow modellers and experimentalists alike to appropriately represent cellular proliferation—vital to the accurate modelling of many biological processes—whilst still being able to take advantage of the power and efficiency of the popular Gillespie algorithm.

Bands of colour extending laterally from the dorsal to ventral trunk are a common feature of mouse chimeras. These stripes were originally taken as evidence of the directed dorsoventral migration of melanoblasts (the embryonic precursors of melanocytes) as they colonize the developing skin. Depigmented ‘belly spots' in mice with mutations in the receptor tyrosine kinase Kit are thought to represent a failure of this colonization, either due to impaired migration or proliferation. Tracing of single melanoblast clones, however, has revealed a diffuse distribution with high levels of axial mixing—hard to reconcile with directed migration. Here we construct an agent-based stochastic model calibrated by experimental measurements to investigate the formation of diffuse clones, chimeric stripes and belly spots. Our observations indicate that melanoblast colonization likely proceeds through a process of undirected migration, proliferation and tissue expansion, and that reduced proliferation is the cause of the belly spots in Kit mutants.

Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches1, while maintaining proven prevention measures using a vaccines-plus approach2 that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. Other recommendations with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments and other stakeholders to improve communication, rebuild public trust and engage communities3 in the management of pandemic responses. The findings of the study, which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end.