E-fuels promise to replace fossil fuels with renewable electricity without the demand-side transformations required for a direct electrification. However, e-fuels' versatility is counterbalanced by their fragile climate effectiveness, high costs and uncertain availability. E-fuel mitigation costs are 800-1200 €/tCO 2 . Large-scale deployment could reduce costs to 20-270 €/tCO 2 until 2050, yet it is unlikely that e-fuels become cheap and abundant early enough.Neglecting demand-side transformations threatens to lock in a fossil fuel dependency if e-fuels fall short of expectations. Sensible climate policy supports e-fuels deployment, while hedging against the risk of their unavailability at large scale. Policies should be guided by a "merit order of end uses" that prioritizes hydrogen and e-fuels for sectors that are inaccessible to direct electrification.
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