ObjectiveLiver biopsy is still needed for fibrosis staging in many patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. The aims of this study were to evaluate the individual diagnostic performance of liver stiffness measurement by vibration controlled transient elastography (LSM-VCTE), Fibrosis-4 Index (FIB-4) and NAFLD (non-alcoholic fatty liver disease) Fibrosis Score (NFS) and to derive diagnostic strategies that could reduce the need for liver biopsies.DesignIndividual patient data meta-analysis of studies evaluating LSM-VCTE against liver histology was conducted. FIB-4 and NFS were computed where possible. Sensitivity, specificity and area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) were calculated. Biomarkers were assessed individually and in sequential combinations.ResultsData were included from 37 primary studies (n=5735; 45% women; median age: 54 years; median body mass index: 30 kg/m2; 33% had type 2 diabetes; 30% had advanced fibrosis). AUROCs of individual LSM-VCTE, FIB-4 and NFS for advanced fibrosis were 0.85, 0.76 and 0.73. Sequential combination of FIB-4 cut-offs (<1.3; ≥2.67) followed by LSM-VCTE cut-offs (<8.0; ≥10.0 kPa) to rule-in or rule-out advanced fibrosis had sensitivity and specificity (95% CI) of 66% (63–68) and 86% (84–87) with 33% needing a biopsy to establish a final diagnosis. FIB-4 cut-offs (<1.3; ≥3.48) followed by LSM cut-offs (<8.0; ≥20.0 kPa) to rule out advanced fibrosis or rule in cirrhosis had a sensitivity of 38% (37–39) and specificity of 90% (89–91) with 19% needing biopsy.ConclusionSequential combinations of markers with a lower cut-off to rule-out advanced fibrosis and a higher cut-off to rule-in cirrhosis can reduce the need for liver biopsies.

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Summary Background Advanced fibrosis has been established as the most important predictor of overall mortality in patients with non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). In contrast to cirrhosis, advanced, non‐cirrhotic NAFLD is difficult to identify and data from Germany are lacking. Aim To identify clinical factors associated with advanced, non‐cirrhotic fibrosis. Methods Patients were recruited in the prospectively enrolling European NAFLD Registry. Clinical characteristics and the performance of non‐invasive surrogate scores compared with vibration‐controlled transient elastography are reported. Results Two hundred and sixty‐one patients with non‐cirrhotic NAFLD on liver biopsy (mean age 51 years, equal sex distribution) were included. The prevalence of stage 3 fibrosis on liver biopsy was 15.7%. These patients were significantly older (57 vs 50 years, P < 0.01), had a higher body mass index (32.3 vs 30.5, P < 0.05), and more frequent arterial hypertension (78% vs 50%, P = 0.001) and type 2 diabetes (61% vs 24.1%, P < 0.001). On multivariate logistic regression, diabetes (OR = 4.68, 95% CI 2.17‐10.10) and hypertension (OR = 2.91, 95% CI 1.12‐7.18) were independent predictors of advanced fibrosis. Comedication included metformin in 50% and insulin in 33% of patients with diabetes. Despite the presence of cardiovascular risk factors, the use of statins was low. Liver stiffness measurement identified advanced fibrosis with an AUROC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.72‐0.91). The performance of NAFLD fibrosis score, Fibrosis‐4, and AST to platelet ratio index were lower with AUCs of 0.74, 0.71, and 0.67, respectively. Conclusions The prevalence of metabolic comorbidities in a German population with non‐cirrhotic biopsy‐proven NAFLD is high. While the examined scores exhibit an acceptable specificity, liver stiffness measurement appeared to be superior to blood‐based non‐invasive surrogate scores in ruling out advanced fibrosis.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), depression, and anxiety disorders are frequent diseases, and data on mutual influence are inconsistent. The aim of this study was to explore the incidence of depression and anxiety in a large primary care cohort in Germany and to study the impact of NAFLD over a 10‐year time frame. Patients with NAFLD diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were matched to a cohort without NAFLD controlling for age, sex, physician, index year, and Charlson comorbidity index. The primary outcome of the study was the incidence of depression, anxiety, and first prescription of antidepressant drugs. We compared 19,871 patients with NAFLD to 19,871 matched controls. Within 10 years of the index date, 21.2% of patients with NAFLD and 18.2% of controls were diagnosed with depression (P < 0.001). On regression analysis, the hazard ratio (HR) for incidence of depression was 1.21 (P < 0.001). This association was similar for the endpoint of the first prescription of antidepressant drugs (HR, 1.21; P < 0.001). Anxiety disorders were diagnosed in 7.9% of patients with NAFLD and 6.5% of controls during the observation time (P = 0.003). The HR for incidence of anxiety was 1.23 (P < 0.001). This association remained significant in women (P < 0.001), while there was only a trend in men (HR, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.99‐1.34; P < 0.067). The risk of developing anxiety disorders was higher in younger patients. Conclusion: NAFLD constitutes an independent risk factor for emerging depression and anxiety even after controlling for confounding comorbidities.