This study was conducted in the Zamora Huayco (ZH) river basin, located in the inter-Andean region of southern Ecuador. The objective was to describe, through land use/land cover change (LUCC), the natural physical processes under current conditions and to project them to 2029. Moreover, temperature and precipitation forecasts were estimated to detail possible effects of climate change. Using remote sensing techniques, satellite images were processed to prepare a projection to 2029. Water recharge was estimated considering the effects of slope, groundcover, and soil texture. Flash floods were estimated using lumped models, concatenating the information to HEC RAS. Water availability was estimated with a semi-distributed hydrological model (SWAT). Precipitation and temperature data were forecasted using autoregressive and exponential smoothing models. Under the forecast, forest and shrub covers show a growth of 6.6%, water recharge projects an increase of 7.16%. Flood flows suffer a reduction of up to 16.54%, and the flow regime with a 90% of probability of exceedance is 1.85% (7.72 l/s) higher for 2029 than for the 2019 scenario, so an improvement in flow regulation is evident. Forecasts show an increase in average temperature of 0.11 °C and 15.63% in extreme rainfall by 2029. Therefore, intervention strategies in Andean basins should be supported by prospective studies that use these key variables of the system for an integrated management of water resources.

In Latin America, water resource management in some areas is difficult when all parts of a system are not considered (including its dynamism). Therefore, it becomes necessary to prepare instruments that facilitate management using a comprehensive approach. This study aimed to develop a methodology that allows one to conduct a prospective analysis of water management over delimited territories. The Zamora Huayco basin was chosen as the study area. This work included a survey of physical-natural, socioeconomic, and political-institutional variables, as well as a system structural analysis. Also, the generation of future scenarios and the strategic and tactical orientation for the integrated management of water resources. The results show that, of the 23 variables used, 19 were classified as key system variables. Most of the variables had strong impacts on each other, but at the same time these were highly receptive to changes. The behavior of change, proposed for the different uses and land cover in the basin for 2029, was considered as the objective scenario, highlighting the gain in forest areas and shrub vegetation. The strategic plans proposed in this methodology consider the structuring and collecting information in a single repository, creating communication channels between stakeholders and decision-makers.